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Tropical Hurricane Jose

GFS is concerning, but once again the models are all over the place and there's no consensus at all this far out. Going to be another long week.
 
Actually gfs landfalls at NC/Va border, dang it we've seen this movie before....
At least last night's eps kept Jose ots, almost all members this run, going to all depend on the loop and then just how strong the atlantic ridge gets (models consistently been underestimating that ridge all year.... )
 
JMA agrees with the ukmet and has a hurricane approaching Miami at 144

The JMA isn't that great but the fact it agrees with the UKMET isn't so great

12z UKMET looks like its landfalling in Eastern Florida at 144
 
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12z GEFS mean is probably 100-150 miles right off the Florida coast and then drifting north where the spread goes crazy. Much much closer than 6z and very close to the Bahamas.

I can't believe we may be doing this again.
 
Euro is just offshore but I really don't know what the heck the model is trying to do with Jose here, there's a monster ridge to its west over Bermuda and another over northern New England and southern Quebec, yet Jose moves NE ots? Yea I call bs...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Euro is just offshore but I really don't know what the heck the model is trying to do with Jose here, there's a monster ridge to its west over Bermuda and another over northern New England and southern Quebec, yet Jose moves NE ots? Yea I call bs...
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That's weird. It may very well end weird for Jose, or the GFS and UKMET are being weird.
 
I think I need a drink. I can't do this again. FYI I'm w/o power at my house and yet somehow I have power at work


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IMG_0215.PNG
I just have trouble believing a route to the NE like that when there's nothing but ridging to the NE of Jose extending from Bermuda to the Hudson Bay. The model is latching onto a very feeble and weakening s/w remnant that's actually part of the same trough interacting with Irma atm and tries to send Jose into it. Not buying it.
 
Omgd JBs Cone is so wide lol
7a384c2201b3eb049b6451d121cfe192.jpg


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Storm5 said:
12z eps still favors ots . I didn't realize how close this was to a possible or threat 5-7 days
74f2686227fe742d729fda89cd9c8437.jpg


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You tried to wishcast Irma out to sea!? How'd that work out ? ;)
 
Tarheel1 said:
You tried to wishcast Irma out to sea!? How'd that work out ? ;)
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Lol what ??? I just posted the 12z eps. I didn't say it was going OTS. Anyone who wants a direct hit is an idiot and I'll never understand why some do. This is a different setup vs irma and has a much shorter window . It's within 5-7 days. That's the first of next week. Obviously it can change see Irma

Speaking of wishcssting , lots of it ongoing with this storm .... see JB

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12z UKMET....
~935 hPa category 4 hurricane into Florida...
GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2017 0 25.2N 69.6W 969 70
0000UTC 12.09.2017 12 26.9N 70.1W 968 70
1200UTC 12.09.2017 24 27.4N 69.3W 957 75
0000UTC 13.09.2017 36 26.7N 67.7W 954 76
1200UTC 13.09.2017 48 25.5N 67.0W 953 78
0000UTC 14.09.2017 60 24.3N 67.1W 952 78
1200UTC 14.09.2017 72 23.6N 68.4W 945 85
0000UTC 15.09.2017 84 23.4N 70.4W 947 85
1200UTC 15.09.2017 96 23.6N 72.9W 940 87
0000UTC 16.09.2017 108 24.2N 75.5W 941 85
1200UTC 16.09.2017 120 25.0N 77.7W 933 89
0000UTC 17.09.2017 132 26.1N 79.2W 937 85
1200UTC 17.09.2017 144 27.4N 80.4W 936 90
 
Webberweather53 said:
12z UKMET....
~935 hPa category 4 hurricane into Florida...
View attachment 1199

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2017 0 25.2N 69.6W 969 70
0000UTC 12.09.2017 12 26.9N 70.1W 968 70
1200UTC 12.09.2017 24 27.4N 69.3W 957 75
0000UTC 13.09.2017 36 26.7N 67.7W 954 76
1200UTC 13.09.2017 48 25.5N 67.0W 953 78
0000UTC 14.09.2017 60 24.3N 67.1W 952 78
1200UTC 14.09.2017 72 23.6N 68.4W 945 85
0000UTC 15.09.2017 84 23.4N 70.4W 947 85
1200UTC 15.09.2017 96 23.6N 72.9W 940 87
0000UTC 16.09.2017 108 24.2N 75.5W 941 85
1200UTC 16.09.2017 120 25.0N 77.7W 933 89
0000UTC 17.09.2017 132 26.1N 79.2W 937 85
1200UTC 17.09.2017 144 27.4N 80.4W 936 90
Click to expand...
Webb, I love ya man, but for God's sake --- I'm paying chain saw folks right now; can we have one quiet night ... :confused:
 
With that ridge, it'll go west for awhile atleast!
 
This short term northeast trend in the GFS actually appears to be attributable to run-run speed differences, as we saw with Irma, the GFS looks too fast with Jose
 
We better hope this very weak shortwave trough over NYC trends stronger and is somehow able to break the ridge down enough to pick up Jose and steer it east of Jose because if it doesn't pick it up, we are gonna be in trouble... This longwave pattern with a trough over the Great Basin and ridge over southern Canada and New England favors a landfall on the US, just need to hope this chink in the ridge's armor per say remains prevalent enough, but in these cases we usually trend towards a stronger subtropical ridge :/
IMG_0217.PNG
 
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