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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Webberweather53 said:
Interesting to note that both the 12z ECMWF & GFS are both trying to develop the next wave immediately behind PTC9/Isaias in the southwest Atlantic next week. May be little rest for the weary

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Here comes the upwelling chatter in 3...2..1..
 
354
WTNT34 KNHC 300248
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS (PRONOUNCED
ees-ah-EE-ahs)...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 67.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Anguilla.

The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
for the Central Bahamas to a Tropical Storm Warning and has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for the Northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
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025120_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

HUGE shift east in the latest cone.
 
With that track I think you’d get cat 1 Hurricane though


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For once a storm is not going to crawl up the SE coast and there is at least some decent model agreement on the track at this point, I would say my rain chances are going up at least......the real question though is wind......the wind field seems rather largish lol, so if this thing can get organized and build on that there could be a lot of places getting some decent winds with a track like that.
 
Since the cyclone is expected to move over Hispaniola on Thursday
some weakening is likely within the next 24 hours. However since
Isaias has such a broad wind field, the weakening will probably not
be as significant as in a typical tropical cyclone with a small
radius of maximum winds. Also, a re-formation of the center to the
north of Hispaniola may occur. Later in the forecast period some
strengthening is likely, although this may be offset by
southwesterly wind shear on the order of 20 kt in 2-3 days.

It should be noted that further
adjustments to the forecast tracks are indeed possible, especially
after Isaias moves north of Hispaniola.
 
Still think this thing comes more west. It’s location is south of model guidance and it is continuing to push almost due west at 20 mph. Models are suppose to already have it pushing NW or NNW by this point and it’s just not doing that.
 
GaWx said:
I’d bet against a H and go with the NHC TS being that it still isn’t very organized, it will be over or near land during much of the track, and 20-30 knots of shear are ahead.
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Definitely possible but that Gulf Stream is very warm


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about 10mb stronger this run, right now, I’d think the GFS is out to lunch with this solution, but other than surge, the storm stays mostly off the coast, taking verbatim.
bed745554aff79d7ab3e958fe28488e5.jpg



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The ukmet has a weak TS into Eastern Florida and then it blows up into a hurricane into Eastern NC

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57
 
0Z Euro sheared mess, thank goodness. Mess is a good thing. Weak is the way to go.

1596089551681.png
 
GaWx said:
Fortunately, that won't strengthen much at all with high shear all around it like this: between lack of org now, lots of land, and high shear, this should never amount to all that much..but will there still be heavy rain in spots?

View attachment 45417
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Yeah definitely no big east coast threat like the ukmet stays inland
 
Looking at the PR radar loop its tough to see what is happening and there could easily be center shifts the next 12-24 hrs.....what do the Euro ens show....
 
Sure looks like a new center may be trying to form right off the SW corner of PR.....

Local NWS

Monday
Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 
Current track suggest a ILM to MHX landfall then crossing the sounds and a exit around Nags Head....as a 70 mph TS....though it should have a rather large wind field so most of the SE coast would likely experience at least minimal TS conditions.

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

Isaias is sending some mixed signals tonight. The 1-min rapid
scan data from GOES-16 indicates that the low-level center is likely
displaced west of a very intense burst of deep convection on the
northeastern side of the circulation. However, the satellite data
also shows increased banding features overnight and a more
organized central cloud pattern, with recent hints that perhaps a
low-level center is trying to re-form closer to the convection.
Radar observations from San Juan show 60-65 kt Doppler wind
velocities during the past few hours near 5000 ft, so the initial
wind speed is raised to 50 kt.
 
I say H landfall quite unlikely (I'm thinking only 20% chance of H landfall anywhere in SE US): check out the shear below plus it is still disorganized and will be near/over land quite a bit

1596103356905.png
 
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