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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Webberweather53 said:
Looks like the center is actually re-forming offshore the Dominican Republic
Click to expand...

Yeah might shoot the gap so to speak and end up in the SW Bahamas.....starting to look like this may actually have a pretty decent impact on central/eastern NC weather....a lot of the models look very very very Irene like with track.....also it has a pretty big huge wind field so even a storm 100 miles off the coast will be rough if it holds on to the wind field size it has now....

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......360NE 60SE 0SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 0SE 0SW 300NW.
 
Looks like some sort of center is shooting the gap and really organizing right now. The GFS and HWRF showed exactly this happening which could lend to a stronger storm down the road if the environment isn’t too bad.

3BC8A732-4260-41E9-BF3C-3481E88EBDAF.jpg
F994B7E3-EC17-4D97-A66A-0C7296FC04CE.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Looks like the center is actually re-forming offshore the Dominican Republic
Click to expand...

Yeah, it does appear that way but it is till not well organized and it would still have some interference from the DR. We'll see. The outcomes from these kinds of situations can be hard to predict.
 
HWRF and HMON have scary good agreement at 06Z, 50-75 miles west or east of this track has pretty big implications ( as it always does ) and it will be interesting to see what kind of wind field this storm will have given the large size it currently has IRT winds.....

hmon_ref_09L_32.png
hwrf_ref_09L_34.png
 
1596114618143.pngConsensus is pretty good last few runs for strong TS or low end cat 1 at some point. Anything higher seems to be an outlier. Not to mention we usually get juiced up members with every system that typically fade near verification
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
View attachment 45440Consensus is pretty good last few runs for strong TS or low end cat 1 at some point. Anything higher seems to be an outlier. Not to mention we usually get juiced up members with every system that typically fade near verification
Click to expand...

Yeah not to mention the system seems the be NE of initialization point and increases the chances of a recurve wide right.

Feeling like the threat is there for eastern NC but for it being 4 to 5 days away everything will change.
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah not to mention the system seems the be NE of initialization point and increases the chances of a recurve wide right.

Feeling like the threat is there for eastern NC but for it being 4 to 5 days away everything will change.
Click to expand...
It’s not too far off actually. Only about 90 hours now. Timeline has sped up as of late
 
Geez

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds are occuring along the
southern coast of Puerto Rico. A Weatherflow station in Yabucoa
Tanque de Agua reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a
gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas
reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph
(87 km/h).
 
Downeastnc said:
Geez

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds are occuring along the
southern coast of Puerto Rico. A Weatherflow station in Yabucoa
Tanque de Agua reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a
gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas
reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph
(87 km/h).
Click to expand...

Not totally related to the storm so I apologize for taking this a little OT but is this from NHC? I find it interesting that weatherflow stations are getting so much hype. I've seen them cited quite a number of times during the tropical season. I have one and a Davis I haven't found the results from the weather flow to be any better
 
Looks like by D3 the Icon and GFS have a broader trough and have eroded enough of the WAR so that the N turn can start to the E of FL, the Euro and CMC have a sharper less broad trough and have expanded heights from the WAR that help inch the system a little farther west before the north turn. It's small differences but the end game becomes fairly large
 
SD said:
Looks like by D3 the Icon and GFS have a broader trough and have eroded enough of the WAR so that the N turn can start to the E of FL, the Euro and CMC have a sharper less broad trough and have expanded heights from the WAR that help inch the system a little farther west before the north turn. It's small differences but the end game becomes fairly large
Click to expand...

Yeah the gfs bias of eroding the ridge to fast is also a concern.

My gut is telling me no big deal inland. If not gets stronger and actually becomes a H then recurve seems likely. If not we get craptacular TS that wont be too exciting and a rain shield that will inevitably stop 5 miles to my south.
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah the gfs bias of eroding the ridge to fast is also a concern.

My gut is telling me no big deal inland. If not gets stronger and actually becomes a H then recurve seems likely. If not we get craptacular TS that wont be too exciting and a rain shield that will inevitably stop 5 miles to my south.
Click to expand...
I keep getting flashbacks to this guy obviously not as far S/W initially of course:
en.wikipedia.org

Hurricane Ernesto (2006) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
SD said:
I keep getting flashbacks to this guy obviously not as far S/W initially of course:
en.wikipedia.org

Hurricane Ernesto (2006) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...

Yup. There is a slim chance it could strengthen as it moves north along the gulf stream. Bertha rapidly strengthened just before landfall so things can get dicey when the gulfstream is involved. For me it's far more about angle of impact.
 
Shaggy said:
Yup. There is a slim chance it could strengthen as it moves north along the gulf stream. Bertha rapidly strengthened just before landfall so things can get dicey when the gulfstream is involved. For me it's far more about angle of impact.
Click to expand...
I am really thinking too much land interaction for this to be a big wind threat for us. To me we are probably more into a rain issue especially if it gets west of Fl and the entire moisture envelope gets pulled in
 
Just from glancing, HWRFs appearance at 12z is quite different than Actual verification. HWRF has significantly more convection further north and almost no southern convection.
 
SD said:
Looks like by D3 the Icon and GFS have a broader trough and have eroded enough of the WAR so that the N turn can start to the E of FL, the Euro and CMC have a sharper less broad trough and have expanded heights from the WAR that help inch the system a little farther west before the north turn. It's small differences but the end game becomes fairly large
Click to expand...
Hmmmm..... a diving trough or a stronger WAR? Guess which way I'll lean with who wins that battle, in early August?
 
000
WTNT34 KNHC 301450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO...
....HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 68.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system. Watches may be required for a portion of
the Florida peninsula later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
Click to expand...
 
SD said:
Not totally related to the storm so I apologize for taking this a little OT but is this from NHC? I find it interesting that weatherflow stations are getting so much hype. I've seen them cited quite a number of times during the tropical season. I have one and a Davis I haven't found the results from the weather flow to be any better
Click to expand...

Yeah the NHC likes citing their professional stations seem to be pretty highly regarded by the NHC as I've noticed they frequently cite them. https://weatherflow.com/professional-services/

The weather stations for the public like the Davis or Weatherflow are both solid. The weatherflow doesn't use spinning cups which can be much more sensitive to wind speeds and gusts vs a traditional anemometer. I believe the professional stations use the traditional anemometer though.
 
Tracks at 12z are shifting East! Here comes the SD subsidence storm! ?
 
ForsythSnow said:
Until we get a real solid center, I don't really know. Best thing is to watch it the next 2 days and see what it does, because it's not doing what the models think it will.
Click to expand...

That area is the old LLC and is dying out. The new one is likely to form along the coast where the MLC is. This has been modeled by the HWRF and GFS suite in recent runs and appears to be verifying.
 
Hot tower really exploding just north of the eastern tip of DR. Let's see if that's where a new center ultimately forms.
 
Ukmet very bullish 955 mb in the OBX also a weak cane near FL

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 68.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2020 0 17.7N 68.1W 1004 38
0000UTC 31.07.2020 12 19.8N 71.3W 1003 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 24 21.1N 73.9W 1000 47
0000UTC 01.08.2020 36 22.5N 76.0W 997 50
1200UTC 01.08.2020 48 23.8N 78.0W 996 48
0000UTC 02.08.2020 60 25.1N 79.1W 992 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 72 26.5N 79.7W 991 49
0000UTC 03.08.2020 84 27.9N 80.0W 987 50
1200UTC 03.08.2020 96 29.6N 79.7W 980 59
0000UTC 04.08.2020 108 31.9N 78.3W 963 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72
0000UTC 05.08.2020 132 39.5N 72.9W 965 71
1200UTC 05.08.2020 144 43.3N 68.4W 978 59
 
12Z so far:

GFS - initializes the low NORTH of Hispaniola, still. Has been going south each run correcting.
ICON- Proper initialization, quickly shoots NW of Hispaniola.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Until we get a real solid center, I don't really know. Best thing is to watch it the next 2 days and see what it does, because it's not doing what the models think it will.
Click to expand...
I know Brad P. said both last night and this morning that this thing has to get past Hispaniola before we truly have a good idea on the path. At this anything is still very much in play
 
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