Tropical Hurricane Isaias

[Webberweather53]

The GFS is out to lunch even at initialization, nowhere close to reality.

 

[Brent]

The ukmet has a weak TS into Eastern Florida and then it blows up into a hurricane into Eastern NC

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57

 

[Downeastnc]

Without recon its tough to tell what the "center" is doing.....

 

[Ethan80963]

Movement now at 18NW

 

[Brent]

Euro weak into SE FL so far

 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro sheared mess, thank goodness. Mess is a good thing. Weak is the way to go.

 

[Brent]

Into the Gulf but weak

 

[GaWx]

Into the Gulf but weak

View attachment 45416

Fortunately, that won't strengthen much at all with high shear all around it like this: between lack of org now, lots of land, and high shear, this should never amount to all that much..but will there still be heavy rain in spots?

 

[Brent]

Fortunately, that won't strengthen much at all with high shear all around it like this: between lack of org now, lots of land, and high shear, this should never amount to all that much..but will there still be heavy rain in spots?

View attachment 45417

Yeah definitely no big east coast threat like the ukmet stays inland

 

[Downeastnc]

Looking at the PR radar loop its tough to see what is happening and there could easily be center shifts the next 12-24 hrs.....what do the Euro ens show....

 

[Ethan80963]

6z spaghetti models and the GEPS

 

[Downeastnc]

00Z GFS para is staying pretty consistent, yet another run that reminds me of Irene.....

 

[Downeastnc]

Sure looks like a new center may be trying to form right off the SW corner of PR.....

Local NWS

Monday
Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

 

[Ethan80963]

Here’s the 00z EPS

 

[Downeastnc]

Current track suggest a ILM to MHX landfall then crossing the sounds and a exit around Nags Head....as a 70 mph TS....though it should have a rather large wind field so most of the SE coast would likely experience at least minimal TS conditions.

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

Isaias is sending some mixed signals tonight. The 1-min rapid
scan data from GOES-16 indicates that the low-level center is likely
displaced west of a very intense burst of deep convection on the
northeastern side of the circulation. However, the satellite data
also shows increased banding features overnight and a more
organized central cloud pattern, with recent hints that perhaps a
low-level center is trying to re-form closer to the convection.
Radar observations from San Juan show 60-65 kt Doppler wind
velocities during the past few hours near 5000 ft, so the initial
wind speed is raised to 50 kt.

 

[Downeastnc]

Ukie from last night with a proper cane landfall....



Give MBY the business....

 

[Ethan80963]

6z ICON

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[GaWx]

I say H landfall quite unlikely (I'm thinking only 20% chance of H landfall anywhere in SE US): check out the shear below plus it is still disorganized and will be near/over land quite a bit

 

[Webberweather53]

I say H landfall quite unlikely (I'm thinking only 20% chance of H landfall anywhere in SE US): check out the shear below plus it is still disorganized and will be near/over land quite a bit

View attachment 45427

Looks like the center is actually re-forming offshore the Dominican Republic