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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Shaggy said:
I wish I remembered the name and year but there was a system that was interacting with the big islands and a blob of convection remained north offshore. The center jumped and relocated by a decent distance.

Theres no defined center yet unless recon finds one now. This thing can do anything. It can reform south of the islands or north or just never close off. This setup, track and intensity is a good one to throw some curveballs.

I'll sit back watch the trends both visually and modeled and wait and see what he does.
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To be honest I seem to remember Dorian doing something like that last year. A lot of modeling was wanting to shred it apart over Hispaniola, but a new center formed in convection to the north and that caused it to miss Hispaniola and go completely nuts in strengthening.
 
We need Hispaniola to hack off that vestigial southern part so the north end can take over.


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Interesting to note that both the 12z ECMWF & GFS are both trying to develop the next wave immediately behind PTC9/Isaias in the southwest Atlantic next week. May be little rest for the weary

 
Webberweather53 said:
Oh man that would be fun, the center goes right over my house.

View attachment 45388
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A mature storm with a broad strong wind field on that track would give most of NC east of I 95 hurricane gust at least I would think, and maybe even sustained 50-60 mph winds in the NE and E eyewalls well inland.....overall though the chances of some kind of TC affecting our backyards sometime Mondayish seems fairly likely even if it is a rem low etc....
 
So now it’s starting to trend to east coast solution. And possibly out to sea.


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If it decides to wrap up tonight and strengthen, I almost wonder if that would be more detrimental to its overall health during its trip over Hispaniola. Right now it’s so dispersed and broad it can easily traverse the island and survive. But if it wraps up a good center tonight and then that center gets heavily disrupted..? Idk just a thought
 
Will it’s slight slowdown from 23mph WNW to 18mph WNW affect it over the next few hours or will it not do much? And does anyone know why they canceled the recon mission scheduled for 7pm?
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
If it decides to wrap up tonight and strengthen, I almost wonder if that would be more detrimental to its overall health during its trip over Hispaniola. Right now it’s so dispersed and broad it can easily traverse the island and survive. But if it wraps up a good center tonight and then that center gets heavily disrupted..? Idk just a thought
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Yeah if it pops a strong LLC south tonight and drags that north it will just kill it....

However looking at some of the maps I wouldnt be surprised to see a newer center organize NW of PR sometime tomorrow as the land interaction of DR to the west and PR to the east let it tighten up a bit there....its just so messy its hard to tell whats going on.....if that new convection around 15N 65W can take over and move NW it might even miss the main islands....
 
I feel like we are looking at a EC hit or near curve regardless of strength. Keys to OBX for the wave + with intensification starting before the Bahamas.
 
20202120140_GOES16-ABI-car-13-2000x2000.jpg
 
I would think that the new blowup of convection can continue, and looking at the ASCAT pass....my guess....would be that is where the center would form or try to consolidate around.
 
deltadog03 said:
I would think that the new blowup of convection can continue, and looking at the ASCAT pass....my guess....would be that is where the center would form or try to consolidate around.
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If this strong convection continues overnight it’ll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow afternoon. A stronger southern based center could cause problems once it encounters Hispaniola. Guidance is confident tho that the northern part takes full control within the next 12 hours.
 
Brent said:
Isaias coming

AL, 09, 2020073000, , BEST, 0, 157N, 663W, 45, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 300, 0, 0, 120, 1009, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAIAS, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021,
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I think it will shift north of Hispaniola.


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Cary_Snow95 said:
If this strong convection continues overnight it’ll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow afternoon. A stronger southern based center could cause problems once it encounters Hispaniola. Guidance is confident tho that the northern part takes full control within the next 12 hours.
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It could thread the needle between DR and PR and with the large ( hell giant ) wind field it is embedded in it might handle it fairly well....then have several days over the Bahamas to get its crap together before it making its run at the SE.....

Maybe something like the 18 Z HMON run short term at least...

www.tropicaltidbits.com

HMON Model

HMON model forecast of Radar & MSLP for 18L
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com
 
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