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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Webberweather53 said:
Also have to consider we're in early August and the WAR is near maximum intensity at this time of the year...
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Agreed. I could see a stronger system attempt to go OTS then get left behind the trough and go into a looping scenario as the ridge builds overhead or a weaker system inching NNE from the Panhandle toward the SE NC coastline
 
SD said:
Agreed. I could see a stronger system attempt to go OTS then get left behind the trough and go into a looping scenario as the ridge builds overhead or a weaker system inching NNE from the Panhandle toward the SE NC coastline
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Welp, the Euro is trending towards this, the trough over New England is lifting out sooner on newer runs, making the out to sea route a little bit more difficult.

ecmwf_z500aNorm_eus_fh96_trend.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Welp, the Euro is trending towards this, the trough over New England is lifting out sooner on newer runs, making the out to sea route a little bit more difficult.

View attachment 45255
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Day 5 weak low near Key West no choice but to turn north from there. Big model rain event incoming. It'll be interesting to see if the euro tries to play some games with the divergent side of the trough as the system moves north
 
My gut opinion tells me it’s a Gulf storm. That hits panhandle of Florida. Reason I feel that way is this thing isn’t exactly organizing all that fast. Which increases the chances of a Gulf storm


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I think Tarheel1 said the other day, models correct West lately, the last few seasons
 
Later in the period, some
southwesterly shear could also temper further strengthening. The
GFS and ECMWF models generally weaken the system in the longer
range due to these negative factors. The NHC intensity forecast is
unchanged from the previous advisory, but an usually high degree of
uncertainty regarding the future track and intensity of the system
remains. Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida
should continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both track and
intensity are likely.

204152_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
I’m in no way disputing Mr. Eric Webber’s forecast, he’s astronomically more experienced than I, but personally I foresee a more Eastern Track as opposed to a track into the Gulf.
 
Here comes Shetleys drought buster!
 
GaWx said:
But if it does, increased chance for safe recurve though NC OB would especially have to watch.
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True. My personal hope is that the SW lobe takes over and pulls it directly over Hispaniola and remnants amount to nothing in the gulf. Thursday morning will be very telling. We will know what we have by then
 
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