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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Brent said:
Looks like the Euro just stalls it around Tampa

Really interesting run though the whole thing has really sped up where if there is a storm it could be on Florida's doorstep by Saturday
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The euro ensembles should be interesting for sure.
 
Looking more organized this morning. The gfs para brings it well inland with good forward speed.


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Starting to get interesting. The HWRF and HMON hurricane models really develop this sucker and keep him alive as a hurricane approaching us.. clearly it goes without saying but you can never write anything off in the tropics especially more than a week away
 
Shaggy said:
I know when these systems have such an elongated circ a lot can change in the modeling based on where the LLC eventually wraps up.
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Just like Ol' Dorian did when the LLc reformed and allowed it to skirt around the Leewards thus preventing it from being shredded.
 
The southwestern end of 92L's wave axis is becoming the dominant one this morning and has access to better CAPE and is more co-located w/ its outflow anticyclone (due to deep-layer NEly shear advecting the ULAC downstream), which basically makes the earlier GFS/GEFS solutions that consolidated the NE side of the wave axis and scooted this "easily" out to sea irrelevant. This is rather unsurprising.

 
Webberweather53 said:
The southwestern end of 92L's wave axis is becoming the dominant one this morning and has access to better CAPE and is more co-located w/ its outflow anticyclone (due to deep-layer NEly shear advecting the ULAC downstream), which basically makes the earlier GFS/GEFS solutions that consolidated the NE side of the wave axis and scooted this "easily" out to sea irrelevant. This is rather unsurprising.

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Won’t this also increase the odds of significant interaction with the islands?
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Won’t this also increase the odds of significant interaction with the islands?
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Yes but a storm of this size and intensity isn't going to be that detrimentally affected by land interaction because it's already pretty weak and its large size means that some significant portion of the storm & its parent wave axis will be over water the entire way
 
No one needs a tropical storm or hurricane now with the pandemic, but Florida really doesn't need one. Good thing is it looks to be a weak tropical storm.
 
12z GFS has future Isaias a bit stronger and a bit faster thru 54 hours.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_9.png
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
This would in turn imply a more southerly track correct? If so the keys into the gulf definitely seem in play
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Well it depends on how strong the vortex gets in the near-term, if this strengthens in a hurry over the next 48 hours, the southerly relocation may not matter as much as it's got a better chance of lifting north of Hispaniola and setting its sights on Florida, Georgia, & the Carolinas. Downshear reformation of the center is also possible in a few days once the southwesterly shear kicks in which would have the potential to offset the changes in track attributable to the SW side of 92L developing now and pulling it further north. I still think the most likely scenario is this runs directly into the Greater Antilles and become disrupted enough to stay further west and move towards the eastern Gulf. I still think many of the models are focusing too much on the NE vort max which likely isn't going to develop here. Gonna need another model cycle or two for them to start catching up.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That's troubling to see borderline hurricane force flight level winds in an invest.
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The last system I recall that did this was Hurricane Matthew (2016) (ironically in the same part of the Atlantic). Hurricane force flight-level winds were found north of the storm at flight level and the center was barely closed.

Screen Shot 2020-07-28 at 12.46.30 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The last system I recall that did this was Hurricane Matthew (2016) (ironically in the same part of the Atlantic). Hurricane force flight-level winds were found north of the storm at flight level and the center was barely closed.

View attachment 45248
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This is definitely giving me Hurricane Matthew Vibes.
 
metwannabe said:
That's not that far out either..... rain shield would have a difficult time deflecting that.
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Its due north at that point. Looking at h5 it's got an outlet to the NE but we would be playing cat and mouse with the trough in the NE dampening the WAR but if that kicks fast enough the WAR can rebuild and force west
 
SD said:
Its due north at that point. Looking at h5 it's got an outlet to the NE but we would be playing cat and mouse with the trough in the NE dampening the WAR but if that kicks fast enough the WAR can rebuild and force west
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Also have to consider we're in early August and the WAR is near maximum intensity at this time of the year...
 
This is going to be a knife's edge forecast, if PTC 9 becomes strong in the next 36-48 hours, folks near/along the SE US coast from Florida to the Carolinas should be on high alert. If we remain weak in the short-term, the storm is more likely to face significant shear and interact w/ the greater antilles, delaying development perhaps until the Gulf of Mexico (but still may be a problem).
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is going to be a knife's edge forecast, if PTC 9 becomes strong in the next 36-48 hours, folks near/along the SE US coast from Florida to the Carolinas should be on high alert. If we remain weak in the short-term, the storm is more likely to face significant shear and interact w/ the greater antilles, delaying development perhaps until the Gulf of Mexico (but still may be a problem).
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I liked it better when you said a couple of hours ago it should go into the Gulf.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I liked it better when you said a couple of hours ago it should go into the Gulf.
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I still like this scenario the most for now because the models are still adjusting to the SW lobe being stronger, but if this starts to develop in a hurry it'll gain more latitude and be more resilient to shear, putting the Carolinas to Florida at risk. We'll know a lot more here in the next day or two
 
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