Webberweather53
Meteorologist
0z HREF max forecast wind speed, damaging winds possible-likely along/east of US HWY 1
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Tropical Hurricane Isaias
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's the 0z HREF PMM QPF forecast. Expect 3-6" of rain along the US HWY1/I-95 corridors, isolated amounts >6" certainly possible if not likely
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like hurricane hunters are finding Isaias to be a little weaker this morning
Shaggy
Member
Go.figure
Downeastnc
Member
HMON still the most aggressive on pressure fall 976 at landfall....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If this morning's recon data is correct, you can/should basically toss that HMON run, it's about 10mb too strong near initialization based on recon's first pass thru Isaias.
Yeah still not a stacked system but given it has a small window of opportunity later today when shear relaxes and the very persistent MLC, deep convection it wouldn't take much to reach cane status. An 80 mph cane at LF is my guess
Never seen upslope this strong before with lightning. It’s been flooding since yesterday
Yeah the HMON doing old HMON stuff
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NHC hasn't updated the corresponding shape files since 11pm last night, the new wind probabilities are generally higher (unsurprisingly)
Downeastnc
Member
He does look worse now than he has in a minute....would be ironic if he fizzles now, especially after doing so well yesterday when he should have died...
blueheronNC
Member
It’s all down to what happens once it starts accelerating in the same direction as the shear vector. A few more hours before that begins.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
He's gonna have a pretty big mountain to climb if his pressure has risen close to 1000mb
I assume this is the main event before the tropical storm gets too far north and cuts off the upslope as the trough slides East. It feels tropical the rates are easily over 2” an hour. This is for areas Charlotte west.
Shaggy
Member
Gonna suck if he crashes. I've been stuck with crap storms ever since irene. Florence and Dorian both were lame here.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah this will probably be lame
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Gobble gobble
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
FWIW, the HRRR initialized at 1000mb and has this at the end of it's run, getting close to cane status on it's approach to the coast
