Tropical Hurricane Isaias

[Fountainguy97]

If you told me to find the hurricane and gave me this image... haha

amazing collapse of convection today. Probably see a pulse back up in the next few hours.

 

[Stormsfury]

Well, I don't know what to say about this storm....other than it looks pretty bad right now. Convection is warming, low level center looks like its moving WNW....

My hunch is in about a few hours, convection will explode on the eastern side again once the center clears away from Abacos Island...

 

[Shaggy]

My hunch is in about a few hours, convection will explode on the eastern side again once the center clears away from Abacos Island...

It would be nice for a convective blow up to pull the LLC back under it once the shear let's up a little.

 

[Shaggy]

Sure looks pretty severely decoupled with hints of the MLC in the remaining convection and the LLC being puked out to the west. About as ugly as it gets right now if you ask me.

The head has been chopped off the snake.

 

[guiness187055]

2pm still a hurricane expected to remain a hurricane with some strengthening possible

 

[Shaggy]

So @Webberweather53 what's the Ukmet seeing that allows it to landfall over Florida and weaken to 1000mb and then go bombs away as it races north into Wilmington with a 978 pressure?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

So @Webberweather53 what's the Ukmet seeing that allows it to landfall over Florida and weaken to 1000mb and then go bombs away as it races north into Wilmington with a 978 pressure?

Barclonic processes

 

[Brent]

Not sure I buy restrengthening at least in the short term although it is the Florida straits I also highly doubt it's 75 mph right now though lol

 

[Jessy89]

It’s a tropical storm right now.


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[Cary_Snow95]

12 GEFS is wayyyyy west

 

[Cary_Snow95]

12 GEFS is wayyyyy west
View attachment 45727

Look at the members over Florida

 

[accu35]

Im Sure some of y'all are excited and ready

 

[Shaggy]

Look at the members over Florida

Theres you're line in the sand. Either he makes a comeback in the next few hours and follows those stronger members or he meanders into Florida as garbage.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Did I somehow miss the 1:00 PM run of the Euro? I didn't see the track from that run here.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

The mandatory evacuations at Ocean Isle and Holden Beach seem like overreactions atm. Oak island has announced they have no plans to evacuate

 

[Webberweather53]

Did I somehow miss the 1:00 PM run of the Euro? I didn't see the track from that run here.

It’ll be out shortly

 

[Webberweather53]

So @Webberweather53 what's the Ukmet seeing that allows it to landfall over Florida and weaken to 1000mb and then go bombs away as it races north into Wilmington with a 978 pressure?

Deep layer shear becomes unidirectional and weaker than it is now, and the storm develops a nice poleward outflow channel into the mid latitude jet. Some intensification is possible if isaias manages to go back over water after Florida

 

[Ollie Williams]

Did I somehow miss the 1:00 PM run of the Euro? I didn't see the track from that run here.

It was nothing special, while it stays over Florida longer, and is further west, it somehow manages to remain further east over the Carolinas than 06z.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

We will have our answer about these paths soon enough. If weakening continues certainly seems like significant interaction over Florida could be in the cards.

 

[Webberweather53]

I’d gladly take this; goes right up US 1