Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Interaction w/ a mid-latitude jet streak over the TN valley and the Apps will give it a boost and having unidirectional, deep-layer shear
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Tropical Hurricane Isaias
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Interaction w/ a mid-latitude jet streak over the TN valley and the Apps will give it a boost and having unidirectional, deep-layer shear
Shaggy
Member
How does that effect the winds being able to mix down?
BHS1975
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The thermally direct circulation and forced ascent caused by Isaias's juxtaposition wrt the mid-latitude jet enhances upper level divergence and entices the development of deep convection which mixes the winds down. It'll be key to see how intense Isaias is by the time it's turning north near Florida's east coast
really? Looks on top of the 0z run maybe a hair west once in NC. Splitting hairs really.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Isaias's low-level center is about 75-100 km SSW of the forecast points for this time via the 6z HMON & HWRF. Expecting major westward shifts in guidance the next few cycles
Looks West of 0Z.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah hard to see the hwrf being right especially with this exposed center.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The forthcoming westward shift in guidance should put basically all of central NC (even areas beyond Charlotte & the Triad) in play for significant wind/rain on Tuesday.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah i was hoping for a strong cat one right where the gfs goes at 12z. My Hope's of that are gone
Brent
Member
This is an insult to hurricanes
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A mid-high grade tropical storm is probably a decent bet regardless, glad to have a significant bout of rain, could certainly use it.
Shaggy
Member
Hwrf is coming in west so far through 15hrs
Cary_Snow95
Member
How west into Florida can we expect with this much weaker and sw track
Stormsfury
Member
Isaias is already reemerging back over water from Andros Island... given it's tenacious resiliency, let's see how the next few hours play out...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
6z HWRF & HMON valid for 18z today vs reality. They're about 100 km too far east and north, expect a major westward shift in the models and official forecasts later this evening and early tomorrow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well, I don't know what to say about this storm....other than it looks pretty bad right now. Convection is warming, low level center looks like its moving WNW....
BHS1975
Member
It won’t start moving NW until it gets more stacked again.
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Shaggy
Member
Yeah SC landfall and the Hmon stays offshore but stays weak and hits ILM at 1001mb and gets down to 993 in @metwannabe back yard