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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

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Mahomeless said:
The faster it speeds up, the further west it’s going….i wouldn’t be shocked to see this coming onshore in MS.
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I'm of the opposite opinion. The faster the forward speed, the less influence westward from the building H5 ridge in the SW Atlantic. And one could argue less capture by the developing ULL to the NW.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I'm of the opposite opinion. The faster the forward speed, the less influence westward from the building H5 ridge in the SW Atlantic. And one could argue less capture by the developing ULL to the NW.
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Correct the faster the speed the further East it come


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I'm of the opposite opinion. The faster the forward speed, the less influence westward from the building H5 ridge in the SW Atlantic. And one could argue less capture by the developing ULL to the NW.
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Your right. Stronger it is the farther east she’s going. Clear to see
 
NCSNOW said:
Theres a web cam out in central GOA. Station 42001 off ventusky website.

www.ventusky.com

Webcams - Station 42001 - MID GULF - 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA

See the weather like never before – live weather maps powered by the most accurate models.
www.ventusky.com www.ventusky.com
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Cool. Thanks for posting that link!
Here are the current conditions there. This is not a tiny storm at all.

Wind Direction (WDIR):E ( 100 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD):31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST):36.9 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT):6.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD):7 sec
5-day plot - Average Wave Period Average Period (APD):4.5 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD):ENE ( 63 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):29.67 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP):79.9 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP):85.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP):76.3 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT):85.1 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M):33.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 20 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M):35.0 kts
 
i'm a big deepmind fan for these tropical systems. nice to see ai actually be useful for something that affects human life and property. it picked up on the secondary coastal trying to form off the sc coast with this event too; before the globals. really impressive aside from their intensity.. i think they need to account for shear/time of year a bit more in the next version... some of those pressures were way too low from the v3
 
Tornadoes: Due to the slight westward shift of the track, more of
the rain bands will progress over our area. The tornado threat
would begin early Saturday morning when the first bands approach.
This threat would continue through Saturday evening until the
remnants of Isaias progress out of the area. The fly in this
ointment is as the approaching shortwave trough phases with
Isaias. There is a low chance that this may stall over the TN
Valley, which would prolong the tornado threat. There is a medium
to high chance at least portions of our area will be in a tornado
watch on Saturday.
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Snippet from HUN about tornadoes across their CWA.
 
There is some good and bad signs with the storm, depending on your POV of course. It certainly looks the part more now with the "eye" trying to clear out etc....but watching the water vapor and vis loops I see the western side limited in its ability to grow due to dry air working around the west and south sides. This will be a race the next 12-24 hrs to see if the center can consolidate and strengthen enough to make run at a Cat 3 but I have some serious doubts it can pull it off, there is just enough shear and dry air to keep it from really wrapping the center with storms needed to bomb out. It has maybe 24 hrs at best to pull it off and that is probably generous on the time. The shear to the NW of the system is nasty stuff and will surely make life harder for Isaias later tomorrow.
 
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