Belle Lechat
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Tropical Hurricane Isaias
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Belle Lechat
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- Aug 29, 2021
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Mahomeless
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The faster it speeds up, the further west it’s going….i wouldn’t be shocked to see this coming onshore in MS.
Tsappfrog20
Member
12z models have def come further East!
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Theres a web cam out in central GOA. Station 42001 off ventusky website.
www.ventusky.com
Webcams - Station 42001 - MID GULF - 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA
See the weather like never before – live weather maps powered by the most accurate models.
www.ventusky.com
Not to mention, the storm will be traversing an eddy in the GOM with high oceanic content this evening.
weatherboyy
Member
I agree
Yeah, I noticed that. I think the GFS was the further west.
I'm of the opposite opinion. The faster the forward speed, the less influence westward from the building H5 ridge in the SW Atlantic. And one could argue less capture by the developing ULL to the NW.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Correct the faster the speed the further East it come
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NoSnowATL
Member
Your right. Stronger it is the farther east she’s going. Clear to see
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I see a lot of east and west statements but based on current modeling:
GFS, CMC, HMON, ICON, HAFS are all NW, so it's faster and further northeast ultimately than the prior runs at this time.
GFS, CMC, HMON, ICON, HAFS are all NW, so it's faster and further northeast ultimately than the prior runs at this time.
It appears the eye is beginning to clear.
Cool. Thanks for posting that link!Theres a web cam out in central GOA. Station 42001 off ventusky website.
Webcams - Station 42001 - MID GULF - 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA
See the weather like never before – live weather maps powered by the most accurate models.
Here are the current conditions there. This is not a tiny storm at all.
| Wind Direction (WDIR): | E ( 100 deg true ) |
 Wind Speed (WSPD): | 31.1 kts |
| Wind Gust (GST): | 36.9 kts |
| Wave Height (WVHT): | 6.2 ft |
| Dominant Wave Period (DPD): | 7 sec |
| Average Period (APD): | 4.5 sec |
| Mean Wave Direction (MWD): | ENE ( 63 deg true ) |
| Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): | 29.67 in |
| Air Temperature (ATMP): | 79.9 °F |
| Water Temperature (WTMP): | 85.6 °F |
| Dew Point (DEWP): | 76.3 °F |
| Heat Index (HEAT): | 85.1 °F |
| Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): | 33.0 kts |
| Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): | 35.0 kts |
HAFS-A 12z run goes from 951mb to 985mb in the final 12 hours before landfall. That would be a wild last minute weakening sequence
BufordWX
Member
Looks like the spin up tornado threat with this one will be highest from N Florida to S Georgia and SE Alabama. Fox weather model looks like it could be pretty active Friday night into Saturday morning.
12z Euro ticked east 
beanskip
Member
Pretty much every 12z ticked east -- esp. the hurricane models. All now have Florida landfall with HMON east of Destin.