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Tropical Hurricane Isaac

Brent said:
Hwrf bombs this too:eek: approaching the Antilles this is a scary track

View attachment 6014
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From my experience the HWRF usually over does storms. If its track nudges a bit north, it would take the Isaac through the islands and hopefully keep him weaker. Depending on the position of the ridge by the time he crosses the Caribbean, he may be too weak to turn to the north at that point. Can you imagine if the storm went through the open waters of the Caribbean and then strengthened? It'd be more like to find a weakness in the Atlantic ridge and exploit it, turning to the GOM and the Gulf coast of the US. This far out there are still a lot more unknowns then knowns at that point though.
 
the NHC is forecasting a hurricane for the Antilles, though they do mention possible shear from Florence

both this and Helene are forecast to become a hurricane which with Florence would make 3 hurricanes at once after having zero in August...
 
Brent said:
the NHC is forecasting a hurricane for the Antilles, though they do mention possible shear from Florence

both this and Helene are forecast to become a hurricane which with Florence would make 3 hurricanes at once after having zero in August...
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Truly incredible. That's why they don't call this the peak of hurricane season for nothing.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Truly incredible. That's why they don't call this the peak of hurricane season for nothing.
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just goes to show you how fast things can flip out there... we had 6 weeks of basically nothing(except two subtropical storms in the North Atlantic) and then boom... I was thinking earlier before Florence formed my signature ended with Isaac, we've gone through all 4 names that fast...
 
Ya'll young.. Atlantic subtropics mean business in September folks:
1024px-Atlantic_hurricane_tracks.jpg
 
I just like that map.. even if it's not context appropriate..
 
should be near the Antilles close to where Irma/Maria hit about the time Florence is on her east coast rampage

Tons of uncertainty with does Florence shear it/try to change its track or not

I must stress that all aspects of the forecast are highly uncertain
at this time. The dynamical track model spread is nearly 1000 miles
at day 5, while the intensity guidance spread is nearly 100 kt.
Although the NHC track and intensity forecasts have not been changed
very much, this should not be interpreted as increasing confidence
in the forecast.
 
Isaac in the Bahamas on the 12z GFS next Monday

then because Florence hangs around it basically turns north into its weakness
 
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SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 45.0W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
well then

The intensity spread is tremendous by the end of the
forecast period, with multiple models showing Isaac becoming a major
hurricane around day 4 or 5, and others showing outright
dissipation.
 
keep forgetting, there is more than Florence out there.. hopefully this doesn't turn into a repeat of last season, only starting later..
 
CMC has it approaching TX/LA at day 10 as a significant hurricane

Other models kill it from Florence's shear in the Caribbean

Massive uncertainty in its future as the NHC said
 
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SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 48.1W
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
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SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 49.7W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for Guadeloupe
and Martinique.

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Dominica.

The meteorological service of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Martinique
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua and Montserrat
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Brent said:
CMC has it approaching TX/LA at day 10 as a significant hurricane

Other models kill it from Florence's shear in the Caribbean

Massive uncertainty in its future as the NHC said
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12Z CMC still holding onto the idea of a TX/LA landfall.
 
I don't know of it makes it much longer, the LLC just ran out from under all convection and even if any convection forms it will be almost impossible to stack due to the speed of motion.
 
The shear is forecast to continue for the next day or two, and
gradual weakening is anticipated, in line with the model
guidance. Given the strong shear, it is possible that Isaac could
degenerate into a wave near the Lesser Antilles. After that time,
Isaac could escape the upper-level trough over the central Atlantic
that has been shearing the cyclone, and find a more conducive
environment. More of the model guidance is suggesting some
reintensification of the cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea, with
the biggest hold-out being the ECMWF. Continuity dictates that the
forecast not change as much as the guidance, most of which is
showing a hurricane at long range, so the compromise solution is no
longer dissipating the cyclone and flat-lining the intensity at
long range. It almost goes without saying that this is a
low-confidence intensity forecast.
 
I actually think the tropical cyclone could dissipate too. When you have a tropical storm that increase speed, it could dissipate.
 
Snowfan said:
I actually think the tropical cyclone could dissipate too. When you have a tropical storm that increase speed, it could dissipate.
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true... but so did Harvey

Not saying this will do anything long range but just because it dies doesn't mean its dead

I could see it dying and coming back for sure

of course now the 18z GFS says nevermind it dies
 
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Brent said:
true... but so did Harvey

Not saying this will do anything long range but just because it dies doesn't mean its dead

I could see it dying and coming back for sure

of course now the 18z GFS says nevermind it dies
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Well, if it does, and it has a decent chance of survival anyways, that beginning of a NW movement, given the time of year, is most disconcerting ... but then, model watching leads to outright lunacy ... LOL ... o_O

205234_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
CMC welcomes Isaac into New Orleans and another new storm off the Carolinas.

Edit. The 00z ICON has them too. Much stronger though.

gem_mslp_pcpn_seus_35.png
 
0Z Euro now has Isaac hour 168 moving WNW through Yucatan Channel. 12Z Euro had no Isaac then.
 
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