The shear is forecast to continue for the next day or two, and
gradual weakening is anticipated, in line with the model
guidance. Given the strong shear, it is possible that Isaac could
degenerate into a wave near the Lesser Antilles. After that time,
Isaac could escape the upper-level trough over the central Atlantic
that has been shearing the cyclone, and find a more conducive
environment. More of the model guidance is suggesting some
reintensification of the cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea, with
the biggest hold-out being the ECMWF. Continuity dictates that the
forecast not change as much as the guidance, most of which is
showing a hurricane at long range, so the compromise solution is no
longer dissipating the cyclone and flat-lining the intensity at
long range. It almost goes without saying that this is a
low-confidence intensity forecast.