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Tropical Hurricane Isaac

Joined
Jan 5, 2017
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#61
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 49.7W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for Guadeloupe
and Martinique.

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Dominica.

The meteorological service of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Martinique
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua and Montserrat
 
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#72
The shear is forecast to continue for the next day or two, and
gradual weakening is anticipated, in line with the model
guidance. Given the strong shear, it is possible that Isaac could
degenerate into a wave near the Lesser Antilles. After that time,
Isaac could escape the upper-level trough over the central Atlantic
that has been shearing the cyclone, and find a more conducive
environment. More of the model guidance is suggesting some
reintensification of the cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea, with
the biggest hold-out being the ECMWF. Continuity dictates that the
forecast not change as much as the guidance, most of which is
showing a hurricane at long range, so the compromise solution is no
longer dissipating the cyclone and flat-lining the intensity at
long range. It almost goes without saying that this is a
low-confidence intensity forecast.
 
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#75
I actually think the tropical cyclone could dissipate too. When you have a tropical storm that increase speed, it could dissipate.
true... but so did Harvey

Not saying this will do anything long range but just because it dies doesn't mean its dead

I could see it dying and coming back for sure

of course now the 18z GFS says nevermind it dies
 
Last edited:

pcbjr

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#76
true... but so did Harvey

Not saying this will do anything long range but just because it dies doesn't mean its dead

I could see it dying and coming back for sure

of course now the 18z GFS says nevermind it dies
Well, if it does, and it has a decent chance of survival anyways, that beginning of a NW movement, given the time of year, is most disconcerting ... but then, model watching leads to outright lunacy ... LOL ... o_O

205234_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 

GaWx

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#78
0Z Euro now has Isaac hour 168 moving WNW through Yucatan Channel. 12Z Euro had no Isaac then.
 
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