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Tropical Hurricane Ida

NickyBGuarantee said:
If that’s the case and we still have so much time.. every hour right now is unfortunately not in our favor .. my ears are popping just thinking about it
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Yep. I'm just basing on just the observations from the outskirts of the main convection. Already down to 987 with 78MPH winds.

Another 12 hours? It could go to 925-930.

Oh no... I'm getting weenied. I guess I went too far with it.
 
URNT15 KNHC 290447
AF303 1209A IDA HDOB 15 20210829
043730 2732N 08844W 6964 02985 9854 +099 +024 037084 085 073 005 00
043800 2731N 08843W 6969 02956 9799 +127 +024 032086 087 077 004 00
043830 2729N 08841W 6967 02931 9770 +125 +025 028089 091 083 011 00
043900 2727N 08840W 6981 02880 9747 +114 +025 026091 094 085 015 00
043930 2726N 08838W 6958 02873 9715 +106 +025 020086 092 085 015 00
044000 2724N 08837W 6969 02826 9675 +113 +026 017069 081 085 024 00
044030 2723N 08835W 6974 02799 9612 +153 +028 015051 062 077 009 00
044100 2723N 08833W 6969 02789 9590 +154 +028 016034 044 049 003 00
044130 2722N 08831W 6968 02781 9574 +157 +029 023022 030 035 001 00
044200 2722N 08830W 6970 02768 9556 +166 +031 037013 018 027 001 03
044230 2721N 08828W 6970 02763 9547 +170 +032 024004 010 022 001 00
044300 2720N 08826W 6974 02755 9543 +173 +032 182006 009 021 000 00
044330 2720N 08824W 6970 02758 9540 +174 +033 191013 016 025 001 00
044400 2718N 08822W 6973 02760 9550 +168 +033 200024 027 035 001 00
044430 2717N 08821W 6974 02764 9550 +173 +034 204037 044 057 004 00
044500 2716N 08819W 6968 02782 9578 +158 +034 212060 068 082 007 00
044530 2716N 08817W 6968 02811 9644 +121 +035 216081 091 087 019 00
044600 2715N 08816W 6973 02850 9719 +094 +036 211102 106 094 046 00
044630 2715N 08814W 6981 02866 9758 +090 +034 205108 110 092 057 00
044700 2714N 08812W 6979 02909 9795 +087 +033 206103 108 087 037 03
$$
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110 kt flight level winds and 954.0 mb.
 
Thoughts on that S/SW eyewall? Is she gonna open up again or is convection going to tighten on this next rotation? Feels like it might need to cool off for a bit before one last rapid intensification b4 landfall. Usually see these things cycle up at the worst possible time. 7619A438-D522-4D04-B2A1-91922CFEDA0D.jpeg
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Thoughts on that S/SW eyewall? Is she gonna open up again or is convection going to tighten on this next rotation? Feels like it might need to cool off for a bit before one last rapid intensification b4 landfall. Usually see these things cycle up at the worst possible time. View attachment 89621
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It’s high cloud tops covering a portion of the eye. The eye is a bit bigger than what you are seeing on IR, still a good bit cloud covered.
 
So we've had some more wnw movement over the past hour or so. Both satellite and radar. That's helpful/hopeful for an eyewall miss for N.O.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
So we've had some more wnw movement over the past hour or so. Both satellite and radar. That's helpful/hopeful for an eyewall miss for N.O.
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The nature of these wobbles is that it will wobble back to the north soon enough. Have to smooth it out to get a real direction of motion. On the other hand these are some very clear pronounced and substantial wobbles she is throwing right now.
 
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