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Tropical Hurricane Ida

I feel like it always appears the storm is moving slower when that eye finally pops and clears … just staring back at you … visible imagery tomorrow morning at sunrise could be absolutely stunning and terrifying .. why do I feel so much guilt for actually anticipating on those slow motion GOES satellite images ?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Looks like another area of disturbed weather may develop later this week in the same portion of the Caribbean where Ida developed late last week. Genesis also looks similar to Ida w/ monsoon trough, tropical wave, upper low over the Bahamas, and Kelvin Wave all interacting to potentially yield development in the western Caribbean. Environment is there as is some model support. Not quite as confident (yet) in this one as I was w/ pre-Ida, but it's going to have much better timing w/ the Kelvin Wave (most TCs form about 2 days after passage). Here's a mini-thread I made on it. Hopefully, this one stays down near Central America...

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Getting a sinking feeling about that wave in the SW Caribbean that we may be doing this again in a week or so...

The VPM MJO phase composite looks about right for the wave coming off Africa now & suggests the Gulf coast and central America should be on alert.

ecens_2021-08-28-12Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

MJO_Atlantic_TC_density_anomaly_MJO_phase4_crop.png
 
Forecast discussion from N.O. forecast office:

Text Products for AFD Issued by LIX

forecast.weather.gov

SNIP:
Winds will be dangerous to destructive through our entire CWA. The
most destructive winds will occur along the coast of Louisiana where
devastating structural damage could occur as winds are expected to
gust over 160 mph! This will severely damage to destroy most
structures that are not well built. Locations around New Orleans
could see winds that are far stronger than what was experienced last
year during Hurricane Zeta with much of the area likely seeing winds
gusts in excess of 100 mph. If there is any more of a jog east these
winds will be even higher. Winds funneling through some of the high
rises will be even stronger. Around Baton Rouge we could see wind
damage that far eclipses what was seen during Hurricane Gustav.
Winds gusts over 110 mph are possible that far inland. This will
lead to widespread tree damage, structural damage, and massive power
outages which could take weeks to restore. Across southwest MS winds
will remain very strong likely gusting over hurricane force around
Wilkinson County and gusting to near hurricane force as far east as
McComb. Northshore areas, especially along the lake could see wind
gusts over hurricane force with widespread tree damage and power
outages. Coastal MS likely to see winds gusts over 60 mph at times
which could still lead to damage and widespread power outages.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Did someone say Betsy? Not quite, but it's getting there.
View attachment 89605
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I was just looking up Betsy's stats and it landfalled over the LA swamps with 140 mph highest sustained winds and 942 mb pressure, both the strongest of its entire existence in solid cat 4 territory. Hopefully, Ida won't be quite as strong at landfall since the 0Z GFS shows 956 and the NHC has 130 with a hopeful slight weakening just before landfall, but those higher Betsy numbers are not unreachable unfortunately on the high end of potential. As it is, 956 would be bad enough with that being a solid cat 3 and bringing the N.O. area about the worst of the storm in regard to winds, surge, and very heavy rainfall.
 
The planes made the turn towards the core and is heading in so in the next 10 to 15 minutes we should know how fast its dropped pressure.
 
GaWx said:
I was just looking up Betsy's stats and it landfalled over the LA swamps with 140 mph highest sustained winds and 942 mb pressure, both the strongest of its entire existence in solid cat 4 territory. Hopefully, Ida won't be quite as strong at landfall since the 0Z GFS shows 956 and the NHC has 130 with a hopeful slight weakening just before landfall, but those higher Betsy numbers are not unreachable unfortunately on the high end of potential. As it is, 956 would be bad enough with that being a solid cat 3 and bringing the N.O. area about the worst of the storm in regards to winds, surge, and very heavy rainfall.
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As I recall, one of the reasons Betsy had such an impact to its northeast was as a mature storm it had an unusually large eye for a landfalling cat 3/4. I've never looked up its IKE, but that would be interesting if it exist.

Also, there was a strong surface ridge that had driven the storm SW into Florida and that gradient piled water into SE La. on those stiff NE winds for days prior to landfall. Ida will be different, but may actually bring wind to perhaps a smaller area just as strong, or perhaps a bit more.
 
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