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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Avalanche said:
Do we not think that the time spent inland will dramatically weaken the storm, and do we not also think the limited time in the atlantic won't be enough to intensify it? I have no clue.
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It will certainly weaken the storm significantly, but if keep in mind that Florida is very flat land and it won’t weaken as quickly as it would over more hilly terrain. Most of the models that bring it back out in the Atlantic still have the pressure between 986-990mb when exits the Peninsula which would most likely still be a weak cat 1. Restrengthening would depend on just how much time it’s over water before coming back into land, but for example Erin in 1995 hit the east coast of central Florida as a category 2, spent nearly 24 on land only weakening to a strong tropical storm and then emerged in the Gulf and quickly intensified into a category 2 before hitting the Florida Panhandle.
 
Code: 
  UW - CIMSS                    
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE      
                    ADT-Version 9.0               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm      

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  27 SEP 2022    Time :   155020 UTC
      Lat :   23:08:59 N     Lon :   83:26:59 W

    
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.4 /  935mb / 125kts

    
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.4     6.6     6.6


ouch. this would be like 143mph.. but its satellite so..
 
Wow uk doubling down

sfcwind_mslp.us_se.png
 
Concerning thing about the Ukmet is it initializes it at 979mb and never shows it stronger than that, so we know it's off on intensity. Now is it off on track or is it right with track and off on intensity out in Atl.... idk.
 
metwannabe said:
Concerning thing about the Ukmet is it initializes it at 979mb and never shows it stronger than that, so we know it's off on intensity. Now is it off on track or is it right with track and off on intensity out in Atl.... idk.
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A lot of these models are not initializing the storm right.
 
Shawn said:
I think the Icon is probably way overdoing intensification, but it's not impossible if it gets over the ATL for an ample amount of time...
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Agreed… 964MB definitely seems a bit extreme, but even if it would drop back to 975mb, that would be a solid category 2 storm and most likely with a fairly wide wind field. Also with a high pressure moving into the Northeast, there’s gonna be a fairly tight pressure gradient meaning a strong onshore wind far north of the center.
 
The recon is about to do another center pass. The darn transponder for the pressure is still not working.
 
Florida is not that wide and flat. I think the intensity for it when it crosses FL and gets back in the Atlantic all depends on how fast it moves across FL. The longer it takes, the more it will weaken. If it moves fast and gets back out into the Atlantic, it could keep a lot of it's intensity and strengthen again before a second landfall.
 
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