Brent
Member
Trends are slightly better for Tampa... At least if it's southeast of them the worst surge would be avoided. Trend seems to be faster and more east overall
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
The ICON may get the track right but it's reorganization and re-intensification is suspect
iGRXY
Member
Holding a Tropical storm further north so winds could be a little stronger.
iGRXY
Member
I don't think it'll intensification will be that much but being back over warm water is going to give it some additional fuel.
Henry2326
Member
Aren't they all.....
ICON is just about the worst case scenario for charleston
vsublazer
Member
Just went Tropical Storm Warning for East Coast of Florida. We are on the 19th floor on the beach in Palm Beach Shores, FL. Should be interesting.
Lightning has really been ramping up in the northern eye wall over the past hour or so. I bet we see another increase in intensity over the next 12 hours.
I honestly think the ICON is on to something. It’s track been pretty consistent also.
Gonna be dealing with a possible high end cat 4 hit if it keeps trending south.
DadOfJax
Member
So much for the rain in Alabama and most of central and north Georgia
Nerman
Member
They shifted the surge south and increased the heights to 12ft. A shift south would be good for Tampa but many of the areas south are at a lower sea level. Port Charlotte is only 7ft.
Don't give up hope yet. There are always surprises with these things.
iGRXY
Member
One thing that is a little worrisome is the NHC has been fantastic at getting these tracks nailed down, but has struggled with intensity. I see no reason why that isn't going to be the case here again. Nothing really holding it back from getting to 150mph peak.
looks like a slight west wobble on radar to me
As much as I blast the ICON, it’s hard to ignore it with the UK being so similar and other models moving in that direction. As for getting stronger before a possible SC landfall, I think it will all depend on how long the center is over water and if it gets any influence with the Gulf Stream.
for anyone curious, Kiawah Island looked to be ground zero that run of the ICON
jaw719
Member
What day would second landfall be based on this model?
iGRXY
Member
Exactly. At the end of the day the biggest thing that drives these things is the fuel and ocean water temps. The gulf stream and waters off the SC and Georgia coast are in the mid 80's which is plenty to help get it's act together again. A potential 2nd landfall as a category 1 hurricane isn't out of the question in my book if it makes it off the coast.