Tropical Hurricane Ian

[severestorm]

10mb stronger

 

[EMTime]

Biden said "substantial loss of life".

 

[Chazwin]

5 pm
80 mph into Charleston harbor....oh boy


View attachment 122596


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 29.3N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 30.5N 79.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 32.8N 79.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 35.0N 80.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 01/1800Z 36.5N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Geez the wind field is huge

 

[Henry2326]

For those interested in the question " just how bad could the surge be into Charleston harbor"......they call it the low country for a reason.....and the high tide adds substantial risk to the situation.

 

[iGRXY]

10mb stronger

That’s some serious winds not far above our heads that could easily get mixed down in those heavy downpours

 

[Downeastnc]

Ian's "center" is already pretty much on 79.4 W which is as far east as the 5pm NHC update took him....his east of track bias looks to be intact still....finally a plane is in route so maybe we will get a idea of what is left of his center....

 

[Shawn]

Looks like Ian is just now starting to make the West movement within the last 45 min:

         ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  29 SEP 2022    Time :   222020 UTC
      Lat :   29:28:05 N     Lon :   79:48:28 W

 

[Downeastnc]

Hard to tell where the actual center is, recon should help sort it out....parts of the "center" on vis look to be all the way to 78.5W, there are a lot of little vorts in there though so

Visible Satellite Loop for Hurricane HELENE | Tropical Tidbits

Hurricane HELENE Visible Satellite Loop

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[Shawn]

Hard to tell where the actual center is, recon should help sort it out....

Visible Satellite Loop for Hurricane HELENE | Tropical Tidbits

Hurricane HELENE Visible Satellite Loop

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Agree. I've just been going by this: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html

Happy to get a recon fix soon

 

[NCSNOW]

Cold sustained wind out here getting this HS game in tonight.

 

[thunderwolf]

The rain is really struggling to make it to the coast this evening. I figured we would have seen more than a few sprinkles by now

 

[severestorm]

The rain is really struggling to make it to the coast this evening. I figured we would have seen more than a few sprinkles by now

Looks like convection is again trying to consolidate to the middle again too.

 

[DTB247]

They close bridges for wind a lot of places

Sorry I should have said and I meant here in Charleston.
Just getting our first drops of rain here on James Island

 

[KyloG]

RGEM really dumped at 18z

I can’t imagine down towards SC/GA border not getting 2-3”.

 

[KyloG]

Looks like recon did find some low end hurricane winds

 

[severestorm]

Looks like recon did find some low end hurricane winds

Yup , just not anywhere near the center though

 

[Stormsfury]

Close to 29.7°N, 79.5°W 986mb pressure. SMFR 75KTS unflagged...

 

[Shawn]

Looks like the satellite/info has done a great job finding the core area of circulation since the "Eye" dropsonde location matches up. It's still starting to tick it back West very slowly. I need to reiterate. VERY slowly

 

[Rain Cold]

RGEM really dumped at 18z

I can’t imagine down towards SC/GA border not getting 2-3”.

View attachment 122600

That's a pretty far north landfall. I know you like the RGEM. It doesn't do all that bad.

 

[KyloG]

That's a pretty far north landfall. I know you like the RGEM. It doesn't do all that bad.

Yeah, it was north. Charleston looks like a good bet.