Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Shaggy]

gfs further north central coast of SC. Says it still takes 18 hrs to clear the coast of Florida

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

gfs further north central coast of SC. Says it still takes 18 hrs to clear the coast of Florida

Looks like it could be off the coast by 6am if this is correct?

 

[Downeastnc]

Ian wasting no time crossing Florida it is amazing to me how bad of a handle the globals have on this system.....most do not have him going offshore till 6 pm tomorrow and do so well north of where he will actually do so.

 

[Shaggy]

My only pause on the speed he looks to be crossing Florida is if we are seeing shear displace the remnants of his CDO while the true LLC lags behind and is still over central florida. If he truly is off the east coast of Florida in the next 8-12 hours then the globals poor performance will be one for the books!!

 

[Shaggy]

Going on recent observations Sebring is reporting a NW wind and the county to its east is reporting S winds so the center is just NE of Sebring

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

2 camps…one GA/SC border other further N. It’s a coin flip.

View attachment 122487

I think the key in this is where is the storm at in 24 hours. It looks like the south eastern landfalls near Hilton head and southern half of SC keep it still over land in 24 hours while the further north solutions have it already past Florida over water in 24 hours (from the 18z time stamp obviously)

 

[Metwannabe]

Ian is very close to emerging over water, 30-35 miles it's looks like. Also Euro with slightest shift N up coast but really focused on SC

 

[Downeastnc]

00Z GFS has two camps, one a sharper left and then a group more like the HRRR/NAM's....and since it cannot be stated enough a 75 miles shift either way is the difference between Hilton Head and ILM.....

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Ian is very close to emerging over water, 30-35 miles it's looks like. Also Euro with slightest shift N up coast but really focused on SC

View attachment 122492
View attachment 122493

Looking likely now that this will directly impact lowcountry here in SC

 

[Tarheel1]

6Z NAMs

 

[Tarheel1]

Precip

 

[Henry2326]

06z....one more click and it's over Charleston

r

 

[Henry2326]

06z ICON.
LF south of Charleston at 972.
North of the Last run.

 

[Henry2326]

06z GFS.....Charleston at 980

 

[Henry2326]

00z UK.....just north of Charleston.

 

[Henry2326]

06z NAM....Charleston at 976

 

[KyloG]

Models converging to Charleston to CLT track with the heaviest rains. RAH mentioned dry slot for places on east side.

 

[Shaggy]

Models converging to Charleston to CLT track with the heaviest rains. RAH mentioned dry slot for places on east side.

View attachment 122504

UH tracks east of 95 lead me to believe severe threat may be our biggest issue in my neck of the woods.

 

[Metwannabe]

GFS trends

 

[Shaggy]

Also the globals have sucked with Ian. The center is somewhere between Orlando and Melbourne just about to exit the coast and even on the 0z run tonight the GFS was saying it was gonna take another 18hrs . Theyve just not handled him well.