Tropical Hurricane Ian

[JHS]

I’d say Myrtle Beach to Calabash this run

Close. about 25 miles SW of Myrtle Beach.

 

[Downeastnc]

Charleston to ILM as usual is the sweet spot, a lot of questions around what kind of storm will Ian be...sloppy half a cane or can he actually rebuild a solid core......there will be a building strong high over NE and there could be a pretty big wind field on the N side...

 

[BullCityWx]

Charleston to ILM as usual is the sweet spot, a lot of questions around what kind of storm will Ian be...sloppy half a cane or can he actually rebuild a solid core......there will be a building strong high over NE and there could be a pretty big wind field on the N side...

That’s why I’m more concerned than I usually am about the wind field with a decaying storm. This is a highly unusual setup.

 

[JHS]

The east trend may be over on the NAM. This run brought it back west about 30-40 miles.

 

[BullCityWx]

3K showing CLT sustained at 34G65 mid day Friday.

 

[$alt]

FV3 still south strengthening.... Does the HRRR use the NAM code or something (vice versa)?

 

[Shaggy]

Eps slight shift to central SC mean?

 

[$alt]

Yeah EPS 18z is not very far off from it's 12z. Ugh.

 

[jjwxman]

I want to see another bump north on the 00z Euro or other guidance besides the mesoscale models before I buy a LF north of Charleston.
The 00z NAM had a landfall close to 100 miles SW of the 18z run. I bet the NAM starts to trend SW toward other guidance.

 

[BullCityWx]

If the NAM verified, you’d have to image quite a bit of severe weather wherever the warm sector shows up.

 

[rambleon]

That’s why I’m more concerned than I usually am about the wind field with a decaying storm. This is a highly unusual setup.

Isn’t this a similar set up to Micheal, with the mixing down of winds? Not sure the terminology, but the back side winds were extremely fierce..

 

[iGRXY]

NAM was a rather large shift to the SW. I still think the 2nd LF will be south of Charleston maybe between HHI and Charleston.

 

[KyloG]

NAM was a rather large shift to the SW. I still think the 2nd LF will be south of Charleston maybe between HHI and Charleston.

2 camps…one GA/SC border other further N. It’s a coin flip.

 

[Forevertothee]

Chris Justus WYFF Greenville posted a FB Live Update showing wind gusts 50mph to 60mph range widespread midlands to Upstate 9am to 2pm Friday. Latest Model Run.

 

[Stormsfury]

FV3 still south strengthening.... Does the HRRR use the NAM code or something (vice versa)?

FV3 is GFS derived if I'm not mistaken

 

[deltadog03]

FV3 is GFS derived if I'm not mistaken

GFS is correct. Isn’t it suppose to replace GFS?

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Yeah EPS 18z is not very far off from it's 12z. Ugh.

What that means Shawn? lowcountry landfall?

 

[Shaggy]

I mean at 18Z the gfs still had Ian just over the space coast at 30 hours. Looking at satellite he is still moving so unless he stalls he will clear the coast way before the gfs even hinted at it. If its that wrong in the short term how good of a handle does it have on this situation?

 

[Stormsfury]

GFS is correct. Isn’t it suppose to replace GFS?

Fv3 actually is supposed to replace the NAM

 

[deltadog03]

Fv3 actually is supposed to replace the NAM

Thank you sir