Tropical Hurricane Ian

[iGRXY]

EPS mean is between Hilton Head and Charleston. Current radar has it moving NNE and heading directly for just south of Charleston

 

[thunderwolf]

I think its been hit on pretty well here, but the faster the system moves over the next 12-24 hours increases its chances of feeling the effects of the trough which would pull the system further northward over the Atlantic. But at this point, I really don't know which model will have it right going forward.

 

[Henry2326]

Both HWRF and HMON coming off FL at 6 pm tomorrow and LF at Hilton Head at 986 and 989.
I've been watching HMON and this is about 10 pta lower in pressure.

 

[Metwannabe]

I think its been hit on pretty well here, but the faster the system moves over the next 12-24 hours increases its chances of feeling the effects of the trough which would pull the system further northward over the Atlantic. But at this point, I really don't know which model will have it right going forward.

Looks like to me the trough is lagging behind most modeling but I could just be way off haha.. would think this allows more northward movement idk, thoughts?

 

[SD]

Watch the trough trend slower on the gfs and Ian trend right. No matter what it does in the ATL crazy to see a constant on going trend like this

 

[thunderwolf]

Yep, looking at current obs, like the WV @metwannabe linked, it is hard to believe that this system wouldn't just keep riding the boundary northeastward because it already appears to be embedded. But obviously forcing at the lower levels is not quite as strong and will continue to break down over the next day or so.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Looks like to me the trough is lagging behind most modeling but I could just be way off haha.. would think this allows more northward movement idk, thoughts?
View attachment 122476

Crude MS paint of where the trough is on this gif



vs the mesoanalysis

It's that 2nd feature to the west of the main trough that will influence if it gets pulled inland where, unless something else happens and it just says nah.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Is it just me or is it moving across Florida faster than modeled

 

[Cary_Snow95]

00z NAM is a little slower to exit Florida and a little west

 

[SD]

00z NAM is a little slower to exit Florida and a little west

Pretty similar to where it was with its 12z run I think. Eh may be splitting the difference between the 12z and 18z runs

 

[Thor]

Pretty similar to where it was with its 12z run I think

Hrrr pretty similar as last run as well

 

[Shawn]

I'm holding out hope these "outliers" are onto something sending this thing up the coast towards NC (no offense NC friends). Hopefully this storm continues it's speed just long enough to get more influence from the North... so far so good I would say.

 

[Shaggy]

10pm position is 80 miles south of Orlando already

 

[Shaggy]

Nam going ham already at 36hrs down to 966MB

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[deltadog03]

I think its been hit on pretty well here, but the faster the system moves over the next 12-24 hours increases its chances of feeling the effects of the trough which would pull the system further northward over the Atlantic. But at this point, I really don't know which model will have it right going forward.

I agree with you, I actually think, as others have said here, that Ian might hit the beach overnight. He is crossing halfway through the state already and looks to be moving fairly quickly.

 

[KyloG]

Past 3 0z/12z NAM runs

Yeah, probably too strong but the trend is a stronger TS.

 

[BullCityWx]

I’d say Myrtle Beach to Calabash this run

 

[Shaggy]

I’d say Myrtle Beach to Calabash this run

Which means any distance off left to right could mean anything from Charleston to Wilmington.

 

[BullCityWx]

Which means any distance off left to right could mean anything from Charleston to Wilmington.

Yeah I’d say it’s still a wide cone until we know when this thing leaves FL. If I had to guess though, id still say Bulls Bay, SC.