Tropical Hurricane Ian

[iGRXY]

Updated plots. Furthest north members is around Georgetown. Overwhelming majority are south of Charleston with a happy medium over Hilton head. Right now the UKIE and NAM are out to lunch.

 

[KyloG]

What would 967 be...high cat1?

 

[Shaggy]

View attachment 122447
Updated plots. Furthest north members is around Georgetown. Overwhelming majority are south of Charleston with a happy medium over Hilton head. Right now the UKIE and NAM are out to lunch.

Ian has consistently been on the eastern envelope of guidance as well. Plenty of people would have said calling for a Cape Coral landfall was out to lunch when ALL the models were Tampa or big bend.

 

[SD]

18z nam from Monday

But yeah let's discount it bc iTs tHe NaM. I'm not arguing that it's right I think it's too far NE but let's not start throwing things out bc of because. The globals that everyone is saying look to just busted by a lot at a short range here

 

[LovingGulfLows]

What would 967 be...high cat1?

View attachment 122449

Cat 2.

 

[jeremyt]

What would 967 be...high cat1?

View attachment 122449

If verified, weak cat 2

 

[BHS1975]

Ukie does really well with low tracks in general.


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[Brick Tamland]

18z nam from MondayView attachment 122451

But yeah let's discount it bc iTs tHe NaM. I'm not arguing that it's right I think it's too far NE but let's not start throwing things out bc of because. The globals that everyone is saying look to just busted by a lot at a short range here

Yeah, just another possible solution. We'll have to see where Ian exits FL and really won't know about a second landfall until then. But I wouldn't be surprised if it comes in further north and stronger.

 

[KyloG]

18z nam from MondayView attachment 122451

But yeah let's discount it bc iTs tHe NaM. I'm not arguing that it's right I think it's too far NE but let's not start throwing things out bc of because. The globals that everyone is saying look to just busted by a lot at a short range here

NAM had it going out to the atlantic for a couple of days before Euro/GFS did...maybe it's a broken clock but....

 

[smast16]

If this verified! Any guess on the implications for Ft Myers? I have a YOUNG daughter working/living in the historic district / riverwalk area. Sorry if this is banter! Worried mom!

? Hope she left.

 

[FortMillSCWx]

This is why people should evacuate: How can they help you when they are getting in storm surge flooding?

 

[KyloG]

HWRF doesn't even get it out on the atlantic...so still big spread among models. I hug the EPS mean at this range, hard to beat.

 

[Brent]

I bet we see a lot of these stories start cropping up

 

[Belle Lechat]

It's not a #Sharknado, but that's not stopping it from trending on Twitter.

 

[SD]

NAM had it going out to the atlantic for a couple of days before Euro/GFS did...maybe it's a broken clock but....

Yeah that's a very aggressive run and something I would expect from the 3k not the 12k. It really lagged the trough and allowed for more of a weakness and right track. It's probably not right but it's still barely within in the reasonable expectation envelope.

 

[deltadog03]

I wouldn't discount the eastern solutions for sure. I am not saying yall are, don't get me wrong. lol I will say the GFS and HWRF have had a TERRIBLE left bias this whole damn storm. Horrible job so far. IMHO

 

[lexxnchloe]

It looks like its moving fast enough to be off the east coast fairly soon

 

[DustinWx]

It looks like the back side of the eye is more violent than the front

 

[Belle Lechat]

I bet we see a lot of these stories start cropping upView attachment 122454

 

[Belle Lechat]

I’m in the eye and the wind is stronger than ever