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Tropical Hurricane Ian

RollTide18 said:
When I fell asleep this was a Cat 3, I wake up and Ian is almost a Cat 5, unbelievable
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In the back of my mind yesterday I was thinking 50/50 shot Ian hits 150mph at his peak so the fact that it’s 155mph and possibly still strengthening is astonishing to me. Completely blew past my expectations. This is why I said a few days back intensity forecasts are complex and complicated to nail down.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
In the back of my mind yesterday I was thinking 50/50 shot Ian hits 150mph at his peak so the fact that it’s 155mph and possibly still strengthening is astonishing to me. Completely blew past my expectations. This is why I said a few days back intensity forecasts are complex and complicated to nail down.
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I imagined 140 max as dry air begins to penetrate the core and shear becomes a problem, but as per Twitter (@vortexjeff) Ian’s positioning near the trough was near perfect for continued rapid intensification
 
DadOfJax said:
Upwelling may become a real issue for the storms structure if this crawl continues. Also, if it crawls long enough, another ERC could occur right before landfall. These 2 things could be saving graces.
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Only thing about upwelling is… I think that part of the Gulf is relatively shallow? I wonder if it’s even deep enough to pull up enough colder water to make a difference.
 
thundersnow said:
Only thing about upwelling is… I think that part of the Gulf is relatively shallow? I wonder if it’s even deep enough to pull colder water up enough to make a difference.
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That is a good point. I've always wondered how shallow areas are effected, if at all, by a crawling storm. As the storm crawls, its got to be drastically pulling the warmth from the shallow waters, pulling it into the storm, and dumping much cooler water back in the form of rain. Maybe systems would have to practically sit for hours for this to be an issue?? While its not classic "upwelling" the effect would be the same. Any thoughts?
 
DadOfJax said:
That is a good point. I've always wondered how shallow areas are effected, if at all, by a crawling storm. As the storm crawls, its got to be drastically pulling the warmth from the shallow waters, pulling it into the storm, and dumping much cooler water back in the form of rain. Maybe systems would have to practically sit for hours for this to be an issue?? While its not classic "upwelling" the effect would be the same. Any thoughts?
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I think we saw that with Harvey and Florence.


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