Tropical Hurricane Helene

[Metwannabe]

12Z HWRF. Cat 4/5 and a tick west at landfall.
View attachment 151800

While this is still a possibility it initialized about 11mb weaker than the storms current pressure. Some times these models miss the little things like dry air intrusion. I'm not downplaying this at all but just throwing it out there as a hopeful sign

 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: even stronger with 954 landfall! tracks to just E of Macon and then to Athens

 

[Metwannabe]

Amazing how, when these things get to turns in the steering current road, they almost always find a way to dance around land...

 

[tractor girl]

HMON shifted back east a bit

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

While this is still a possibility it initialized about 11mb weaker than the storms current pressure. Some times these models miss the little things like dry air intrusion. I'm not downplaying this at all but just throwing it out there as a hopeful sign

It certainly may be overdone. After all, a CAT 5 requires a near-perfect environment to achieve CAT 5 status.

What I find particularly concerning not just with the HWRF I posted, but all of the tropical models is the strengthening forecast right up until landfall. The prospect of dry air intrusion from the continent as is so common with GOM landfills seems unlikely per modeling.

 

[Metwannabe]

12Z Euro: even stronger with 954 landfall! tracks to just E of Macon and then to Athens

This has got to be making the NHC a little nervous

 

[jrips27]

12Z Euro: even stronger with 954 landfall! tracks to just E of Macon and then to Athens

Definitely east of the 6z run by the looks of it

 

[Metwannabe]

It certainly may be overdone. After all, a CAT 5 requires a near-perfect environment to achieve CAT 5 status.

What I find particularly concerning not just with the HWRF I posted, but all of the tropical models is the strengthening forecast right up until landfall. The prospect of dry air intrusion from the continent as is so common with GOM landfills seems unlikely per modeling.

I was referencing the current dry air intrusion hopefully slowing intensification in the short term not the prospect of any as it approaches LF. Also I'll agree, we've seen to many of these strengthening right up to LF in recent years too

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

12Z Euro: even stronger with 954 landfall! tracks to just E of Macon and then to Athens

It's bonkers that the NHC track seems to be discounting all of the global models further eastward movement. Not even a mention in any of the discussions.

If the NHC nails this track as usual, I'll never doubt them again.

 

[tractor girl]

Still plenty of time for it to shift back west a tick.

 

[ILMRoss]

It certainly may be overdone. After all, a CAT 5 requires a near-perfect environment to achieve CAT 5 status.

What I find particularly concerning not just with the HWRF I posted, but all of the tropical models is the strengthening forecast right up until landfall. The prospect of dry air intrusion from the continent as is so common with GOM landfills seems unlikely per modeling.

this may sound dumb since we just had dry air intrude

but this storm will be moving so quickly and will be coming in at such an angle that continental dry air will not matter. by the time it gets properly ingested it will be over land. i really dont think this will be an issue and i believe it will be intensifying up to landfall

 

[Stormsfury]

12z hurricane models shifted east a little.
Couple of them were slower by 3 hours for landfall. Images near landfall and in NE GA ...

HAFS-B
HWRF
HAFS-A
HMON

 

[jrips27]

It's bonkers that the NHC track seems to be discounting all of the global models further eastward movement. Not even a mention in any of the discussions.

If the NHC nails this track as usual, I'll never doubt them again.

I’d have imagine they tick east a bit at 5pm but hey who knows. You’re right though they’ve been locked in on the same areas so far

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

Ryan Maue says won’t know precise inland impacts until it comes into range of the HRRR

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Ryan Maue says won’t know precise inland impacts until it comes into range of the HRRR

When does it come into range of the HRRR ?

 

[weatherfide]

Extreme rainfall at my house now. .26" so far. Windy outside already.

 

[accu35]

This is go time now, with her dancing around and wobbles it’s a hard pinpoint where exactly landfall. So far they all been in same general area

 

[weatherfide]

When does it come into range of the HRRR ?

 

[SD]

No landfall or real degradation from the Yucatan and Cuba is pretty concerning here. There isn't a lot over the next 24 hours or so to really slow down gradual development at minimum. You can make a case that in that last 6 hours before LF the environment may get hostile enough to see weakening but by that point some level of ET may be starting so it could all be a net 0. Once inland as it starts to really interact with that upper low and undergo full ET I think the initial spin down is pretty rapid but it's going to hit a level when the spin down becomes less rapid not sure where that is on the wind side but I'd suspect high enough to make a mess across a good part of GA and parts of SC/NC/TN

 

[South AL Wx]

It looks like the latest advisory has raised the potential peak storm surge:

"Carrabelle, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...12-18 ft"