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Tropical Hurricane Helene

Brent said:
Yeah the one saving grace here is landfall is under 36 hours away. It can still blow up very easily in that time but time is ticking
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Definitely. Also TCs have difficulty burping out that dry air at times too, again could delay intensification and never know could mean weaker system at LF but way to premature to think that
 
You can see it in radar pretty easily
1727283595847.png

that dry air really hollowed out the northern core of the system. probably why pressure rose a touch. i didn't think it would have a lot of impact but it must have been dry air off the yucatan it is ingesting. this is a speed bump and it should begin intensifying again soon
 
12Z UKMET shifted a little W vs 0Z run’s far NE GA and once again comes in stronger like typical UK trend:

TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 86.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2024 0 21.5N 86.2W 984 51
0000UTC 26.09.2024 12 23.1N 86.3W 979 48
1200UTC 26.09.2024 24 25.5N 85.4W 975 50
0000UTC 27.09.2024 36 29.6N 83.9W 970 55
1200UTC 27.09.2024 48 35.6N 84.0W 984 31
0000UTC 28.09.2024 60 38.7N 86.8W 989 35
1200UTC 28.09.2024 72 36.9N 89.5W 996 16
0000UTC 29.09.2024 84 36.6N 89.3W 1003 12
1200UTC 29.09.2024 96 36.4N 89.3W 1006 10
0000UTC 30.09.2024 108 CEASED TRACKING
 
tractor girl said:
Euro projecting 70+ wind gusts for my area (68 at the tooltip, but the dark gold blob moves northward)

View attachment 151799
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Not to downplay the winds in ATL, which will be strong, but I’m currently more concerned about Athens than Atlanta for the highest winds per model consensus since Athens looks to be near or E of the center. Same for @GeorgiaGirl in Augusta.
 
GaWx said:
Not to downplay the winds in ATL, which will be strong, but I’m currently more concerned about Athens than Atlanta for the highest winds per model consensus since Athens looks to be near or E of the center. Same for @GeorgiaGirl in Augusta.
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if that’s the consensus then why is the official forecast track near or just to the west of Atlanta ?
 
tractor girl said:
Euro projecting 70+ wind gusts for my area (68 at the tooltip, but the dark gold blob moves northward)

View attachment 151799
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If this holds true, the damage in Middle Georgia will probably be worse than Michael. I'm just to the west of the "80 mph" notation, my peak gusts during Michael were around 70 mph. All of the "in house" models that are used in the Macon, GA media market project this thing to come more east than the current cone suggests.
 
ILMRoss said:
i disagree, i think the storm getting tangled with land interaction is what put weaker solutions on the table and supported western solutions. ensemble data showed stronger solutions favoring the eastern side of the envelope. i wouldn't be surprised to seem some eastward ticks in modeling this cycle now that that hurdle has been cleared
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I would tend to agree if we still had weaker solutions to the west. However, we have consistent Cat3/Cat4 predictions west of the big bend now. I don't currently see anything in the upper levels that is going to kick this east. Again, if the ULL placement is drastically misplaced, or the ridge is weaker than predicted, then yes, the eastward component will be there.....but there just isnt anything pointing to that right now. Just my opinion though
 
My mom lives in PCB, she’s on a cruise till Sunday, I’ve been watching that area and it seems like the newest landfall paths seem to have moved closer to PCB. Am I imagining this?
 
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