Tropical Hurricane Helene

[AJ1013]

NWS point forecast has gusts to 60mph here. Pretty impressive for being hundreds of miles east of the storm. Hurricanes this large are rare at my latitude

 

[SnowwxAtl]

0z Icon- a stronger Helene perhaps?

 

[Chazwin]

I almost wonder if it's too big to really bomb out(I'm talking about the Cat 5 stuff...) I'm forseeing a very large Cat 3 tbh

I remember that’s what happened with Ike in 2008. Never got above 110mph winds despite a pressure that would have been a higher end cat 4

 

[Brent]

I remember that’s what happened with Ike in 2008. Never got above 110mph winds despite a pressure that would have been a higher end cat 4

Yeah and it's already got super low pressure... I mean usually 990 mb would already be a hurricane

So even if you see a 930-940 model run it could only be a 3

 

[Snow_chaser]

Shift to west again. Lights out Atlanta! A very dangerous Thursday & Friday morning ahead!...sigh! Just are they seeing with the shift. Got to look at the 0z suite closely. Like one is saying, it must be something we don't know or a model they are using that we don't have access to for these slight adjustment west.

Yea living in west Georgia definitely don’t like these shifts to the west. Seems like landfall staying close to the same but the bend to the NW in Georgia is shifting west alittle each update.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

0z Icon- a stronger Helene perhaps?
View attachment 151703

The ICON continues to ride the east side of the NHC cone.

 

[Chazwin]

0z Icon- a stronger Helene perhaps?
View attachment 151703

The ICON is also sticking to its guns on bringing the storm up the eastern side of the cone once inland. Also it’s got the center basically on top of GSP Friday morning with a pressure still at 983mb

 

[tractor girl]

Here's why it's pulling more to the west once it gets in GA

 

[Stevo24]

The ICON is also sticking to its guns on bringing the storm up the eastern side of the cone once inland. Also it’s got the center basically on top of GSP Friday morning with a pressure still at 983mb

Yeah I’m confused as to why the official cone keeps shifting west when the models say otherwise.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Here's why it's pulling more to the west once it gets in GA

View attachment 151705

It's still east of ATL though, but I get the logic...this ULL is the major factor.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

I still don’t understand why so many models are showing the heaviest rain on the west side of the center. I always thought the west side was the good side.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Yeah I’m confused as to why the official cone keeps shifting west when the models say otherwise.

The NHC is a little to the east of the tropical model suite out of respect to the GFS and EMCF. That's a tight cluster well west of the ICON track.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

I still don’t understand why so many models are showing the heaviest rain on the west side of the center. I always thought the west side was the good side.

Interaction with the ULL will add enchantments I guess.

 

[Chazwin]

Yeah I’m confused as to why the official cone keeps shifting west when the models say otherwise.

Well the NHC is usually really good at these. However I do question why atleast the cone isn’t a bit wider. I just looked at the most globals and hurricane model runs at the furthest west in GA any of those are is right over Atlanta.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I still don’t understand why so many models are showing the heaviest rain on the west side of the center. I always thought the west side was the good side.

There is a front forecast to be draped along that pre-storm axis of heavy rain.

 

[SD]

 

[GaStorm]

Some 8-12 inch rain totals now showing in north GA.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Seems we have a battle of west-leaning MESO models vs east-leaning globals. Awaiting the GFS.

 

[accu35]

This hasn’t made it to the gulf yet, except more shifts and wobbles.

 

[tractor girl]

NAM has it riding the AL/GA border