Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[Shaggy]

This GFS run is the scariest yet for upstate SC. 60mph gusts were bad enough, but this is showing 80mph for us now.

Maybe this one will be the exception but typically those maps are way overdone. Seen it plenty of times here. Usually a good 25% reduction Is typically what reality is.

 

[Snowfan]

Buoy 42056's pressure is at 991.8 mb.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Buoy 42056's pressure is at 991.8 mb.

NW wind @ 9 Knots. Looks like the COC passed right over. 13 Mb drop from the last recon. Helene is cooking now.

 

[Makeitsnow]

Also it's still 977mb passing east of Atlanta. That would be close to a record low I would imagine

Was hoping the gfs wouldnt cave but it has trended west a bit west. gfs is showing an area of .850mb winds of 90 to 100 knots just east of the center near Macon...with 925mb winds of 70 knots to 80knots..and even 65knot winds at 950mb. Then the core of the strongest winds move into the upstate. And of course the storm could be stronger than shown at landfall or a bit further west. Regardless...Not a good situation. Watching the Atlanta TV stations..they are doing a good job expressing the seriousness of this.

 

[Makeitsnow]

18Z with sustained tropical storm force winds far inland to the east of the center.
View attachment 151666

Seeing that much deep red at 10 meters on tidbits that far inland is absolutely nuts.

 

[Henry2326]

Yet another model showing the center east of the current forecast track. They may have to shift the track further east. ICON and GFS are both east.

NHC the majority of the time follows TVCN. The light gray line.

 

[Brent]

Pressure has been steadily dropping all day

 

[rburrel2]

The flooding for NE GA and the western upstate of SC is going to be insane. Widespread 10+ inches seems likely at this point... followed by 40-50 mph gusts at minimum. Seems like a recipe for widespread/long lasting power outages.

 

[Snowfan]

NOAA plane reports 990.5 mb but has a bit of a low pressure bias but per above buoy 42059 reports 991.8 mb.
221530 1948N 08506W 6958 03096 9905 +146 +113 355013 016 /// /// 03

 

[Henry2326]

That gray line is way to west if your talking about the center of the storm.

I'm telling you that's driving the NHC cone. Maybe someone else here know more about that model.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

The flooding for NE GA and the western upstate of SC is going to be insane. Widespread 10+ inches seems likely at this point... followed by 40-50 mph gusts at minimum. Seems like a recipe for widespread/long lasting power outages.

Yeah its gonna be crazy for sure. I hope people are prepared.

 

[DustinWx]

Stop with the banter please

 

[SD]

TVCN is just a consensus

 

[Henry2326]

TVCN is just a consensus

There you go.....averages of averages?

 

[tractor girl]

GFS says gusts up to 73mph in my area

 

[SD]

There you go.....averages of averages?

I think it's like the avg of the hurricane models, gfs, and maybe the Canadian

 

[SD]

I think it's like the avg of the hurricane models, gfs, and maybe the Canadian

I was wrong it's some of the hurricane models, gfs, euro, UK, and the new navy model

 

[SnowwxAtl]

GFS says gusts up to 73mph in my area
View attachment 151670

I see it for Augusta not for Athens...I might be looking at this wrong though.

 

[Snowfan]

991 mb.

 

[tractor girl]

I see it for Augusta not for Athens...I might be looking at this wrong though.

When I put the crosshair over Clarke County, it actually shows 74mph