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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

I can say that while I did not expect much up my way, every single model did show 40-45 mph gust with the HRRR and 3k NAM showing 50 a few times, highest thus far has been 38.
 
Rain Cold said:
Wasted 2 days. We didn't used to close for rain and partly cloudy skies when I was in school.
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I agree completely and this "debate" comes up every year whether TC or winter weather, but back then people weren't handing out lawsuits like free samples at the Fair either. This is a litigation world we live in and honestly I'd hate to be those in position to make the call
 
Looks like it is going to just miss an official landfall, probably less than 10 miles...
 
Rain Cold said:
Wasted 2 days. We didn't used to close for rain and partly cloudy skies when I was in school.
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I can kind of understand yesterday with them saying they weren't sure how conditions would be around here. We did have tornadoes yesterday from the hurricane, even though none were in Wake, and we were under a tropical storm warning. But today makes no sense at all. Every forecast said we'd be in the clear here by the morning. If they wanted to be cautious, they could have had the one hour delay and then changed it if it was worse than anticipated.
 
Hard to believe that tomorrow afternoon Dorian will be off the coast of Nova Scotia. Where was this speed when it was over the Bahamas?
 
Models over played the wind here. Every model had winds of 60+ with some going crazy like the Hrrr and Nam. EURO also had strong winds for us. Gfs was the lowest with around upper 50s.

We gusted to around 50. Officially at PGV peak sustained wind was 37 and highest gust 48. There was a period where the gusts were pretty strong for a couple hours.

This was not as bad as Mathew but a little stronger than florence here.
 
Hatteras landfall. Could have told you that 3 days ago. My father in law didn’t board up the cottage in KDH so I’m hoping it was uneventful up that way. What’s next
 
091553_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.7N 74.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
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Shaggy said:
Models over played the wind here. Every model had winds of 60+ with some going crazy like the Hrrr and Nam. EURO also had strong winds for us. Gfs was the lowest with around upper 50s.

We gusted to around 50. Officially at PGV peak sustained wind was 37 and highest gust 48. There was a period where the gusts were pretty strong for a couple hours.

This was not as bad as Mathew but a little stronger than florence here.
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PGV is missing a few hrs of obs from 2-4am so its possible there is something higher than 48 though not by much 50-55 tops, it was rough during that time frame and I was pissed PGV wasnt posting obs, though I feel like 5-6am was the peak worse gust, the center was only 75 miles or so away at that time....

I feel like 50mph is a good number, lots of big branches down etc but dont see any tree's down, gonna take a ride here in a sec and see if any trees are down, one thing I noticed was the gust were more downburst like and shorter like in a thunderstorm and not the long rolling tree killing gust we see in the core wind field of storms that come more inland...

If the track had been right along the coast and inland at MHX and into the Pamlico like the models showed for days then I think we would have seen the 70 mph stuff, but when they move slow they always bounce around the coast like that.....
 
Apparently possibly hundreds of people are stranded on Ocracoke Island and reports of "catastrophic flooding".... it's a small beautiful Island with only about 900 residents but my guess is they have come through so many storms, most did not evacuate. Praying it's not as bad as it is sounding.
 
metwannabe said:
Apparently possibly hundreds of people are stranded on Ocracoke Island and reports of "catastrophic flooding".... it's a small beautiful Island with only about 900 residents but my guess is they have come through so many storms, most did not evacuate. Praying it's not as bad as it is sounding.
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Didn’t we hear catastrophic flooding reports coming out of Ocracoke after Florence too?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Didn’t we hear catastrophic flooding reports coming out of Ocracoke after Florence too?
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Honestly I don't recall.... pretty sure we here catastrophic flooding with all TC's in recent memory.

I will say this is different though. They took a direct hit from a probably stronger than usual western eyewall and the sound side surge it sounds like is brutal!
 
metwannabe said:
Honestly I don't recall.... pretty sure we here catastrophic flooding with all TC's in recent memory.

I will say this is different though. They took a direct hit from a probably stronger than usual western eyewall and the sound side surge it sounds like is brutal!
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yeah look at the Pamlico River at Washington dump out when the winds went N to NW.....look at the time at this one and the one below to see where all the water went

pamn7_hg.png



ocan7_hg.png
 
...DORIAN STILL CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...

During the past hour, a elevated Weatherflow station at Jannette
Pier, North Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 83 mph
(133 km/h) and a wind gust of 98 mph (157 km/h).

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Update for
Dorian. An intermediate advisory will be issued at 2 pm EDT,
followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm EDT.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 74.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
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Bradford pear killer. Lots of bradford pears split and I saw 3 full trees down. Rest were large branches. One fraternity house at ECU had a tree top pop and crush 4 cars.
 
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED ON THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR EASTERN CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 73.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
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Not that it matters for the US but satellite presentation seems to be improving already for Dorian. Atlantic Canada could really take it on the chin here.

When he goes it's going to be good riddance.

For what its worth, the possible snow from Dorian is also still on the table up there lol.
 
Avalon Pier, Kill Devil Hills

100 yards from my father In law’s cottage. I don’t know where they’ll come up with the money to fix this. I was fishing on that section of pier 5 weeks ago
BE9A9FAF-97A5-4EA7-BF37-CD7F1FF65F31.jpeg
 
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