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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Over 360 without power in Raleigh now. Charlotte to Winston-Salem would be a better place for those evacuating.
 
Also, fewer people are going to track a much weakened storm. When this thing was breathing at 185mph Cat 5, possibly headed for a central Florida landfall, that's a lot more urgent, a lot more suspenseful, and a lot more riveting than a 110 mph hurricane headed out to sea that is going to "only" scrape the coastline. From a casual weather hobbyist standpoint this storm has lost its intrigue and checking in on it a couple of times a day seems to suffice.
 
Anyone know if Canada will evacuate if the latest EURO model is right? Sub 940mb. Direct landfall of the entire storm whether it’s tropical or extra?
 
The center is already farther north than any of the 12Z global runs had it so if all things stay equal as far as angle of turn then it should be left of track and that would put it onshore the beaches and inside Pamlico Sound....
 
The west side wind max the models keep showing has to be overdone right? I just cant see a 5-6 hr period of gust into the 70-80's tonight into the morning....the models all seem to have it and all have it about the same strength.....just dont know how much stock to put into these models showing that kind of wind....even if its 10-15% off its 60-70 mph for hrs....I dunno....
 
Overdone yes, but when it's every model every run now you have it at least consider it a possibility. Probably won't really know what happened until daybreak
hrrr_mslp_uv850_seus_19.png
 
Downeastnc said:
The west side wind max the models keep showing has to be overdone right? I just cant see a 5-6 hr period of gust into the 70-80's tonight into the morning....the models all seem to have it and all have it about the same strength.....just dont know how much stock to put into these models showing that kind of wind....even if its 10-15% off its 60-70 mph for hrs....I dunno....
Click to expand...

It's probably legit but where it sets up and how strong is unknown. I would say about 15% off those numbers which still would be 60-80mph gusts if HRRR and other high res models are correct.
 
Downeastnc said:
The west side wind max the models keep showing has to be overdone right? I just cant see a 5-6 hr period of gust into the 70-80's tonight into the morning....the models all seem to have it and all have it about the same strength.....just dont know how much stock to put into these models showing that kind of wind....even if its 10-15% off its 60-70 mph for hrs....I dunno....
Click to expand...
What models are you looking at? 12z ECMWF is showing a peak of 46 mph for the Greenville area
 
Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

NOAA buoy 41004 recently measured sustained winds of 85 mph (137
km/h) and a gust to 98 mph (158 km/h) in the southern eyewall of
Dorian.

The Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
of 88 mph (142 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 78.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
SD said:
The mesoscale models and the NAM suite are a little more robust with the wind fields
Click to expand...
That is interesting, especially since the tracks of the 3k NAM and ECMWF line up pretty well. It might be on to something but I still think it is probably a little overdone.
 
It’s funny. I haven’t seen a drop of rain all day. Been partly cloudy and a little breezy. Gusts to about 15, but that’s it. Not a bad day at all.
 
I was expecting at least a small breeze today... but everything has been basically 1-2mph aside for a gust or two early around 5.
 
If we get another north wobble its going to tuck the center up in right under Cape Fear, that blow up of storms on the south side will probably pull it east a bit more but when that rotates around to the north it might pull the center on or really close to Cape Fear.
 
Downeastnc said:
Well HRRR

View attachment 23225

3K NAM

View attachment 23226


Even the recent Euro does better according to this map than you said.

View attachment 23227
Click to expand...
You are right. I was looking at the same 12z run on WeatherBell and it has a 51 mph max right over PGV. I guess the sites are using different algorithms to make the maps? I did notice the 12z wind gusts map from WeatherBell was a good deal lower than the previous ECMWF runs, even at the coast.
 
thunderwolf said:
You are right. I was looking at the same 12z run on WeatherBell and it has a 51 mph max right over PGV. I guess the sites are using different algorithms to make the maps? I did notice the 12z wind gusts map from WeatherBell was a good deal lower than the previous ECMWF runs, even at the coast.
Click to expand...

They are likely overdone but even if you take 10-15% off the top thats still hurricane force gust....I guess I will know if they are right in about 12 or so hrs lol...
 
Another thing to note, the 18z HRRR says it should be gusting in the 40s and 50s right now in portions of the Sandhills. Current obs are showing gusts in the mid 20s. Not saying that the model won't be right in the future, but it is obviously not handling that secondary interior wind max well at the moment. It actually looks pretty good for the coastal counties though.
 
Downeastnc said:
If we get another north wobble its going to tuck the center up in right under Cape Fear, that blow up of storms on the south side will probably pull it east a bit more but when that rotates around to the north it might pull the center on or really close to Cape Fear.
Click to expand...
On radar looks like one of those north wobbles is occurring..
 
metwannabe said:
On radar looks like one of those north wobbles is occurring..
Click to expand...

Yeah radar is much more reliable, obviously NNE the last few hrs.... if he doesnt move more east in the next 6-7 hrs it will landfall on Cape Fear, like the models have been showing for days....it should also begin speeding up a touch soon to....but I still think Cape Fear to MHX to just west of Hatteras is the most likely track....but when they go slow they like to "bounce" off and around land so he might roll around Cape Fear enough to avoid a technical landfall.
 
Radar looking to be extending a bit further west. Currently I’m on the fringe line.
87406f338fcf15b26265870cde12e913.jpg



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Also as he gets closer to land and especially if he actually gets on shore the moat around the center should fill in with heavy rain, this will help mix those winds down to the surface....
 
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
353 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

NCC051-052015-
/O.CON.KRAH.TO.W.0042.000000T0000Z-190905T2015Z/
Cumberland NC-
353 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY...

At 352 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Jerome, or 13 miles southeast of Fayetteville,
moving west at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Hope Mills, Stedman, Bushy Lake Natural Area and Cedar Creek.
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
401 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WILSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 401 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF FARMVILLE, MOVING WEST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILSON, KENLY, LUCAMA, STANTONSBURG, BLACK CREEK, SARATOGA AND
BUCKHORN RESERVOIR.
 
Literally nothing is open at all on James Island other than Bojangles. Damage is probably the worst since Hurricane Hugo on the island.
 
Debris signature on the radar with the Wilson County tornado according to WRAL.
 
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