Dang. I still think this is moving faster. I have seen nothing to suggest otherwise. prob closer to 10 mph. but just WOW at Dorian.
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
gawxnative
Member
Well I do not recall any storm this strong, moving this slow, not getting upwelling effect or EWRC.. just crazy IMO
126
URNT15 KNHC 011458
AF302 2805A DORIAN HDOB 41 20190901
144830 2650N 07625W 6967 03068 9962 +092 +023 132074 075 068 008 00
144900 2649N 07626W 6966 03061 9965 +080 +023 128075 077 068 010 00
144930 2648N 07628W 6971 03044 9949 +084 +023 126080 082 070 010 00
145000 2647N 07629W 6970 03033 9939 +080 +024 125083 085 073 010 00
145030 2645N 07630W 6967 03019 9927 +074 +024 127086 087 076 010 00
145100 2644N 07632W 6968 02996 9890 +087 +024 128091 093 082 009 00
145130 2643N 07633W 6968 02976 9861 +091 +024 128099 103 091 008 00
145200 2642N 07634W 6969 02945 9843 +078 +023 128108 111 096 016 00
145230 2641N 07636W 6972 02902 9801 +075 +024 128118 123 100 033 00
145300 2639N 07637W 6970 02855 9746 +073 +025 130127 133 117 032 03
145330 2638N 07638W 6964 02801 9676 +073 +024 128140 146 137 067 00
145400 2637N 07639W 6963 02708 9565 +085 +025 130149 156 176 053 00
145430 2636N 07640W 6962 02620 9459 +092 +027 131135 139 176 045 03
145500 2635N 07642W 6996 02470 9311 +131 +033 125109 134 169 005 03
145530 2634N 07643W 6967 02438 9188 +190 +035 119065 092 111 003 03
145600 2632N 07644W 6970 02394 9129 +215 +035 113033 054 058 005 03
145630 2631N 07645W 6979 02374 9103 +233 +038 123006 022 032 007 03
145700 2629N 07645W 6967 02395 9110 +232 +041 294011 018 /// /// 03
145730 2627N 07646W 6965 02435 9192 +179 +045 297042 048 /// /// 03
145800 2627N 07648W 6970 02466 9246 +156 +048 309054 056 /// /// 03
$$
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They just found 176 knots in the hurricane.
URNT15 KNHC 011458
AF302 2805A DORIAN HDOB 41 20190901
144830 2650N 07625W 6967 03068 9962 +092 +023 132074 075 068 008 00
144900 2649N 07626W 6966 03061 9965 +080 +023 128075 077 068 010 00
144930 2648N 07628W 6971 03044 9949 +084 +023 126080 082 070 010 00
145000 2647N 07629W 6970 03033 9939 +080 +024 125083 085 073 010 00
145030 2645N 07630W 6967 03019 9927 +074 +024 127086 087 076 010 00
145100 2644N 07632W 6968 02996 9890 +087 +024 128091 093 082 009 00
145130 2643N 07633W 6968 02976 9861 +091 +024 128099 103 091 008 00
145200 2642N 07634W 6969 02945 9843 +078 +023 128108 111 096 016 00
145230 2641N 07636W 6972 02902 9801 +075 +024 128118 123 100 033 00
145300 2639N 07637W 6970 02855 9746 +073 +025 130127 133 117 032 03
145330 2638N 07638W 6964 02801 9676 +073 +024 128140 146 137 067 00
145400 2637N 07639W 6963 02708 9565 +085 +025 130149 156 176 053 00
145430 2636N 07640W 6962 02620 9459 +092 +027 131135 139 176 045 03
145500 2635N 07642W 6996 02470 9311 +131 +033 125109 134 169 005 03
145530 2634N 07643W 6967 02438 9188 +190 +035 119065 092 111 003 03
145600 2632N 07644W 6970 02394 9129 +215 +035 113033 054 058 005 03
145630 2631N 07645W 6979 02374 9103 +233 +038 123006 022 032 007 03
145700 2629N 07645W 6967 02395 9110 +232 +041 294011 018 /// /// 03
145730 2627N 07646W 6965 02435 9192 +179 +045 297042 048 /// /// 03
145800 2627N 07648W 6970 02466 9246 +156 +048 309054 056 /// /// 03
$$
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They just found 176 knots in the hurricane.
Stormsfury
Member
Discussion product has stated it's slowed to 6kt.. ??.
NoSnowATL
Member
She is getting bigger too. Last few frames you can see the expansion. I just do see the 90* turn but who am I. Due west at 10mph 180 mph winds... damn
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
RI.....
Henry2326
Member
That is consistent storm to storm....happened in Michael too.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Personally that's why I didn't laugh at it and I don't even think I commented on it. I know that the HWRF does insanely well with those storms. Now it's depicted too weak.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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Hard to imagine RI from 913 MB! One for the record books for sure!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
NHC says 7 now.
pcbjr
Member
Question - You do or do not see a 90º turn? Hard to fathom in this instance ...
You know, what's crazy is the NAM may have been right all along with the crazy pressure falls it was showing near the Bahamas on its runs a few days ago.
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Yeah I saw that. I mean it's still near 8-10 mph from what I can tell. Estimate obviously
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Call me whatever, but I think we will see it peak at 195 mph with a pressure of 898 mb and will break thr record on the wind. Wilma was 882 so I can't see it being that.
Probably not the best time to nitpick, but Dorian is a boy's name (so that would be "he").
(sorry, my OCD kicked in)
Hurricane Patricia in 2015 is the strongest hurricane in the western hemisphere with 215 mph winds. Any chance Dorian tops that?
And it might be closer to that but looking at the in between recon fixes and satellite it looks like about the same speed as before. But either way it's still moving.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Still have to curving at 79 west, and still two days to go before it does so. This is going to be a very long two days. If I lived anywhere in Florida I would be getting out now.
Stormsfury
Member
Yeah looks like maybe some subtle mesovorticity action in that eye too. Unbelievable turn of events...
F-5
Member
Using the marker on GRLevel 3 our of Miami, I get 9-10mph movement the past hour. Hard to be precise though.
Yeah with how amped up this is if eye even scraps the coastline anywhere its going to do significant damage
Is this then the efficacy of this model then more than track? Overall it seems it’s track has been discounted, as maybe it doesn’t do as good of job understanding elements outside of the hurricane itself such as the drivers for steering and such? Or, if that’s wrong, should we care it slams it to FL?
Interesting, Icon actually has a bit of high pressure to the north that wasn't there the last run
Edit: It falls apart.
Edit: It falls apart.
NoSnowATL
Member
Probably not the best time to nitpick, but Dorian is a boy's name (so that would be "he").
(sorry, my OCD kicked in)
Boy/ girl or indecisive. It is a beast and it will carve its own path and I have a feeling it’s going to turn right at the coast. Watching history today friends!
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Downeastnc
Member
yeah its slowing down has been for the last hr or so, also ever so slightly bumping north.....
Henry2326
Member
Yep...I said st 7 this morning, Icon is worse case....I think it actually went off the scale now.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
I would really like to hear Webber's thoughts this morning. Paging Webber.....??
dsaur
Member
If it rides the beaches with those winds it will be the most expensive, and given the high tides, if people hunkered down maybe most deadly. They need to go for a drive no matter what the models predict.
Note that this is the furthest east at that point of just about any ICON run fwiw. Just about all of the others were onshore in FL then.
Henry2326
Member
And substitute the 956 at approach with say 930....and that might be generous....
pcbjr
Member
Saw that; walk and Mass, but in the hopes of good mojo, holding off on the beer and ice run ... LOL
ForsythSnow
Moderator
This is interesting.
my take on things right now looking at the WV imagery.
Icon makes landfall in NC.
dsaur
Member
Now man, after you've been good, you need to be bad....as long as you can still run if necessary
I don't think anyone is safe yet.
pcbjr
Member
Tony,Now man, after you've been good, you need to be bad....as long as you can still run if necessary
If it becomes necessary to make a beer and ice run, under the circumstances, I might even throw in a couple stogies ...
Snowflowxxl
Member
ICON overall was a good chunk east
Another year, more flooding with fecal matter in it ?
Henry2326
Member
It might not have landfall till the end but it was close enough to give me pause....