Might also be the blowup of convection in its western side acting to maybe give it that little SW push, almost like a seesaw in a way
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
I agree, but I think the biggest thing for me is look how much more of an almost slight dip SW toward FL in the shorter term. I saw the 0z EPS doing that as well.
agreed! I am still torn on this one. I could see a couple of different outcomes.
pcbjr
Member
read between the lines ... so can the NHC for now ...
06z EPS shifts west, mean still offshore but this isn't settled by no means....
I will say there is less spread though
edit: Instead of deleting I will just edit to say I mistakenly compared it to the 18z eps, it did shift west from that but overall very similar to the 0z eps.
I will say there is less spread though
edit: Instead of deleting I will just edit to say I mistakenly compared it to the 18z eps, it did shift west from that but overall very similar to the 0z eps.
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06Z EPS still mainly off shore:
Yeah looks a lot like the 0z eps, I was comparing it to the 18z in my previous post.....doofus me. Lol
I didn’t want to be the bearer of bad news by saying it last night, but I have been concerned that we might get some shift corrections back west. How much? I don’t know, enough to have a landfall somewhere along the SE coast regardless. My confidence is still low, but I’m still in the camp that Dorian will make an “official” landfall somewhere rather than outright OTS if it maintains or gains forward speed today that’s gonna be a problem.
Well the good news is the NHC is on the western side of guidance, so probably expect to see continued adjustments east with their track.... but let's see what today brings.
Still hate that models are initializing pressure to high, this could still affect things
Looks like it's starting to slow down.....maybe
Euro looks pretty spot on when looking at previous hurricanes in a similar location.
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All I'm saying is when you take a hurricane from the mouth of the cape fear to morehead city that's generally a recipe for 40-50 mph gusts in our area.
As for east vs west, I'm favoring west its hard to imagine a storm getting west of 75 and not hitting the nc coast
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Starting to look more symmetrical with cooling cloud tops.... it's a beast
Seems like they found a 141kt SFMR that was unflagged
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm lost on this post. Are you referencing a specific hurricane or am I missing something?
guiness187055
Member
When is Dorian supposed to slow down. Seems like he is moving faster
wow
132400 2601N 07303W 6986 02791 9687 +084 +018 125127 131 141 052 00
132400 2601N 07303W 6986 02791 9687 +084 +018 125127 131 141 052 00
One important piece of the puzzle will be the Evolution of the Atlantic High off the coast. Notice Below Around the Carribean The High pressure at H5 is tilted negatively as Dorian hovers around the Bahamas moving WNW. 
This should cause Dorian to move NW on a track towards the Carolinas. As the storm moves closer the HP should tilt positively, steering the storm OTS.
What we need to watch closely is how fast the low moves and how quickly the High goes negatively to positive.
1. The faster the storm the closer to the coast Dorian gets before moving NE. The slower the better, however, the trend has not been our friend
2. The Slower the HP goes to positive the further inland to the coast the storm will get. Compared the 00z the HP has tilted faster. (See below)
3. The weaker the HP or further east It gets will most likely further OTS. Therefore the more difficult It will be for the storm to move inland.
Several runs ago we had the HP very flat longer, causing the storm to go due west into FL, moving east quickly shifting positive. The trend has been a slower shift, which is why I expect more future runs to correct west.
Bottom line: won't take much of small upper-level changes to be a big Impact for the Carolinas, which is concerning. However, on the bright side, It also won't take much to go OTS
This should cause Dorian to move NW on a track towards the Carolinas. As the storm moves closer the HP should tilt positively, steering the storm OTS.
What we need to watch closely is how fast the low moves and how quickly the High goes negatively to positive.
1. The faster the storm the closer to the coast Dorian gets before moving NE. The slower the better, however, the trend has not been our friend
2. The Slower the HP goes to positive the further inland to the coast the storm will get. Compared the 00z the HP has tilted faster. (See below)
3. The weaker the HP or further east It gets will most likely further OTS. Therefore the more difficult It will be for the storm to move inland.
Several runs ago we had the HP very flat longer, causing the storm to go due west into FL, moving east quickly shifting positive. The trend has been a slower shift, which is why I expect more future runs to correct west.
Bottom line: won't take much of small upper-level changes to be a big Impact for the Carolinas, which is concerning. However, on the bright side, It also won't take much to go OTS
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Starting to get worried about the Carolinas now. The models continue to adjust, but I think we have seen these wild swings before, with hurricane tracks and winter storms, where they start one direction, then go the complete opposite, and then end up somewhere in between. The models at first were going west, taking Dorian into Florida and the Gulf. Yesterday they started going north and east, the complete opposite, taking it out to sea. Today we are seeing some adjustments back west, and putting the Carolinas in play. This is the way it always seems to be, going from one end to the other, and eventually meeting in the middle.
MichaelAndrews
Member
Feeling the same way, tension is rising and it's still multiple days away which is good and bad. Good because there is still time to prepare, bad is we still don't know where the hell this thing is going to end up
Cadi40
Member
I personally haven't seen any adjustments back west however do expect some. This truly is a very complicated forecast and honestly all scenarios are on the table at this point in time.
looks like it’s crossing the 26N line
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JaxHurricane12
Member
literally throws its blinker on and makes a right hand turn lol
Cadi40
Member
Something tells be the wind field will be huge with this storm, look at the size of that eye!
I’m not seeing the adjustments west. Plenty of time for the stall and sharp north movement. Watch out coastal areas of the Carolinas it’s fairly good agreement for nasty weather.
Downeastnc
Member
The models do not have the skill to get the track of Dorian right off the Carolina coast yet, differences of 50-75 miles one way or the other is the difference between landfall somewhere around SC/NC border and missing the coast....the models are not able to get the trough/ridge interaction right to that level of accuracy for the middle of next week yet, if Sunday night into Monday they all agree on a hit will I begin to worry....
NCSNOW
Member
Floyd Track boys,telling u. Just want be as slow across eastern NC
Allan Huffman out with a bold forecast. Solidly east of SC and even further east of the OBX.