• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

NHC 8:00 AM
Just noticed the timing off SC coast is 2 am Thursday (like EURO).

06z GFS pinned that spot at noon on Wednesday, 14 hours sooner.



113611_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Last edited:
I don't have a good feeling about this yet. I know we are dealing with hurricane season, and it's September, but I've seen too many Northwest adjustments with coastal systems. Last year's Atlantic "almost a good snow storm but just offshore" haunts me since this system needs very little setup changes to drastically change how and where it goes.
 
KyloG said:
Interesting with the low to the north further west past few runs on the EPS.

View attachment 22568
Click to expand...
Definitely need to watch this over the next day or so, you can see it results in the west ridge further south keeping Dorian off Fl but allows the WAR to extend more north.... setting up a path for the Carolina's
 
And again forward speed today and once it approaches the coast are critical. If it stalls out before the turn like the Euro shows man anything can happen then, we've seen the models can't resolve the upper air pattern beyond 72 hrs very well let alone 4-5 days
 
Talk about a tough decision to make from a preparation and evacuation standpoint if you live along the Florida / GA / Carolina coast.

A near miss still looks to be the cards, and while it's always better to be safe than sorry, the media and weather forecasters will never live this one down if everyone has to board up, shut down and leave town for little or nothing to happen.
 
KyloG said:
Euro has it nearly stationary for almost 60 hours. GFS moves it north quicker. The Euro struggled last year with Florence when modeling it slowing down.

View attachment 22574View attachment 22575
Click to expand...
Yep...remember that vividly. I'm going with GFS.....burned once but not twice. Bet the SC Governor is saying the same thing right now....

Edit: you see EPS spot on at 60 hours....with a 14 hour difference, we really have a problem.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Talk about a tough decision to make from a preparation and evacuation standpoint if you live along the Florida / GA / Carolina coast.

A near miss still looks to be the cards, and while it's always better to be safe than sorry, the media and weather forecasters will never live this one down if everyone has to board up, shut down and leave town for nothing to happen.
Click to expand...
Probably why no real evacuations have taken place.....every man, woman, and child for themselves....
 
e298435fe84b78dab04f1bdbca0a4f7f.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Euro has 50mph gusts back to myself, rain cold and metwannabe 40 to the rdu airport and we keep those for about 12 hours. Wind gusts along the coast of well over 100 mph. Ouch

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Euro has 50mph gusts back to myself, rain cold and metwannabe 40 to the rdu airport and we keep those for about 12 hours. Wind gusts along the coast of well over 100 mph. Ouch

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

What about the Greenville to kinston to goldsboro corridor on the euro. I'd think gusts in the 60s would seem plausible.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top