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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

NHC 8:00 AM
Just noticed the timing off SC coast is 2 am Thursday (like EURO).

06z GFS pinned that spot at noon on Wednesday, 14 hours sooner.



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I don't have a good feeling about this yet. I know we are dealing with hurricane season, and it's September, but I've seen too many Northwest adjustments with coastal systems. Last year's Atlantic "almost a good snow storm but just offshore" haunts me since this system needs very little setup changes to drastically change how and where it goes.
 
KyloG said:
Interesting with the low to the north further west past few runs on the EPS.

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Definitely need to watch this over the next day or so, you can see it results in the west ridge further south keeping Dorian off Fl but allows the WAR to extend more north.... setting up a path for the Carolina's
 
And again forward speed today and once it approaches the coast are critical. If it stalls out before the turn like the Euro shows man anything can happen then, we've seen the models can't resolve the upper air pattern beyond 72 hrs very well let alone 4-5 days
 
Euro has it nearly stationary for almost 60 hours. GFS moves it north quicker. The Euro struggled last year with Florence when modeling it slowing down.

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Talk about a tough decision to make from a preparation and evacuation standpoint if you live along the Florida / GA / Carolina coast.

A near miss still looks to be the cards, and while it's always better to be safe than sorry, the media and weather forecasters will never live this one down if everyone has to board up, shut down and leave town for little or nothing to happen.
 
KyloG said:
Euro has it nearly stationary for almost 60 hours. GFS moves it north quicker. The Euro struggled last year with Florence when modeling it slowing down.

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Yep...remember that vividly. I'm going with GFS.....burned once but not twice. Bet the SC Governor is saying the same thing right now....

Edit: you see EPS spot on at 60 hours....with a 14 hour difference, we really have a problem.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Talk about a tough decision to make from a preparation and evacuation standpoint if you live along the Florida / GA / Carolina coast.

A near miss still looks to be the cards, and while it's always better to be safe than sorry, the media and weather forecasters will never live this one down if everyone has to board up, shut down and leave town for nothing to happen.
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Probably why no real evacuations have taken place.....every man, woman, and child for themselves....
 
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Euro has 50mph gusts back to myself, rain cold and metwannabe 40 to the rdu airport and we keep those for about 12 hours. Wind gusts along the coast of well over 100 mph. Ouch

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SD said:
Euro has 50mph gusts back to myself, rain cold and metwannabe 40 to the rdu airport and we keep those for about 12 hours. Wind gusts along the coast of well over 100 mph. Ouch

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What about the Greenville to kinston to goldsboro corridor on the euro. I'd think gusts in the 60s would seem plausible.
 
SD said:
Euro has 50mph gusts back to myself, rain cold and metwannabe 40 to the rdu airport and we keep those for about 12 hours. Wind gusts along the coast of well over 100 mph. Ouch

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Map?


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Shawn said:
I am already seeing headlines along the lines of "Dorian set to miss Florida, aims at the Carolinas"

Morons.
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To your point, NHC discussion says:

"It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude
Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of
the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty."
 
Henry2326 said:
I was about to write the same thing. As a layman watching this modeling process from the outside, it appears crazy, with no control of info distribution.
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Yep, all we can do at this point is make sure that our shelter and evacuation plans from previous years are still good. Personally, we're good here and all that's left to do is wait.
 
Ser Pounce said:
Yep, all we can do at this point is make sure that our shelter and evacuation plans from previous years are still good. Personally, we're good here and all that's left to do is wait.
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I thought Florence evacuation was spot on. All worked well. The issue in a short planning period is getting the hospitals cleared that are downtown.
 
Wind impact in NC would be highly dependent on track and storm structure....and most of those wind maps should be taken with a grain of salt....
 
It’s barely noticeable, but it looks like Dorian took a very little SW wobble this past hour, looks like it’s headed more due west for now
 
metwannabe said:
And again forward speed today and once it approaches the coast are critical. If it stalls out before the turn like the Euro shows man anything can happen then, we've seen the models can't resolve the upper air pattern beyond 72 hrs very well let alone 4-5 days
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winner!! Today is going to be a HUGE day...I know they are always big days when forecasting these things, but if it can keep its speed up for another 24-36 hours, and on a 270-290 path....
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s barely noticeable, but it looks like Dorian took a very little SW wobble this past hour, looks like it’s headed more due west for now
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I was going to say it but was waiting for someone smarter to say it. She looks to be south by a tab on the track, TWC says she should be going WNW right now. Will it last? How long does it last? Today will be telling for sure.


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