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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Here’s the latest wind gust swath. Pretty interesting to have 39 mph winds in Burlington. Note the max winds in SC are much higher earlier. Not sure how Wxbells algorithm is.
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Brick Tamland said:
The current tornado watch in NC expires at 7:00 pm. Wonder if they will issue another one or extend it. Still have a ways to go before Dorian gets past NC.
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SPC says a new watch will likely be needed:

Mesoscale Discussion 1932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Areas affected...Eastern NC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 636...

Valid 052045Z - 052245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 636 continues.

SUMMARY...Greatest tornado threat is expected to gradually shift
north across ww636.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/radar imagery suggests Dorian has
shifted a bit east as it advances along the Carolina Coast. Since
early this morning, the most notable convection has been occurring
within the northeast quad of the cyclone, roughly 100 mi from
Dorian's center. Lightning is noted within the band as it lifts
north, well ahead of the circulation's center. Isolated supercells
continue to form along a corridor, arcing from Sampson County NC -
Onslow County - 32.97N/75.70W, off the NC Coast. This activity
should gradually move north across the remainder of ww636,
continuing well beyond 23z expiration. For these reasons a new
tornado watch will likely be warranted later this evening.
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Storm has moved much more easterly recently, according to models will tick back North soon toward Wilmington.
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That's a lot of east movement recently. The area from oak island over to carolina beach is going to be awfully close to that thick area of yellow and red on radar to the west of the system

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Shear is insane. Just had a higher sky briefly and mid layer of clouds were moving from ese to wnw and low clouds were screaming from ene to wsw.
 
Shaggy said:
Shear is insane. Just had a higher sky briefly and mid layer of clouds were moving from ese to wnw and low clouds were screaming from ene to wsw.
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No kidding the clouds are moving. Radar has 45 mph over the house at 1000 ft with this next band of heavy rain with some convective elements may get a few gusts in the 30s to near 40 here

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SD said:
That's a lot of east movement recently. The area from oak island over to carolina beach is going to be awfully close to that thick area of yellow and red on radar to the west of the system

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I think it still skirts Cape Lookout and prob makes official LF on the OBX but it has certainly turned NE. Although looks more north than NE on last couple of radar frames, also really building west, those communities about to take a big hit

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metwannabe said:
I think it still skirts Cape Lookout and prob makes official LF on the OBX but it has certainly turned NE. Although looks more north than NE on last couple of radar frames, also really building west, those communities about to take a big hit

View attachment 23231
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At that heading it's going to be a mess for the entire coast

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SD said:
No kidding the clouds are moving. Radar has 45 mph over the house at 1000 ft with this next band of heavy rain with some convective elements may get a few gusts in the 30s to near 40 here

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Yeah makes me wonder if the models showing the very high 925mb winds and surface gusts might be on to something. The low clouds are screaming overhead right now. If the nam is right with the dry air in the lower levels we just might get that wind max
 
Not going to miss Cape Fear by much and this heading will drag the left side all the way up the south beaches and hit MHX dead on...or even a bit to the west....

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As a boy born in Wilmington and who lived there a whole 4 1/2 years, but who has family all over eastern NC, God bless all of you and stay safe! Thanks for all the updates while you're dealing with this!
Phil
 
Downeastnc said:
Not going to miss Cape Fear by much and this heading will drag the left side all the way up the south beaches and hit MHX dead on...or even a bit to the west....

View attachment 23235
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Still moving with too much of a northerly component.
 
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