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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Dorian is down to a category 3 hurricane.

Hurricane Dorian 1 AM Update:

...DORIAN WON'T BUDGE...

LOCATION: 26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 MB
 
TT sattelite data has been sparse in the last 45 minutes or so but Dorian appears to be cooling significantly around the eye. Looks like a major explosion of activity in the last hour
 
Hurricane Dorian Advisory 39A:

...DORIAN STILL STATIONARY...
...CONTINUES TO PUMMEL GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND..

LOCATION: 26.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 30 MI NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 MB
 
wonder if its even gonna restrengthen at this point

though given this storms history I wouldn't write it off lol
 
The 0Z Euro initialized near 26.9 N, 78.5W, which is about 10 miles NW of the actual of 26.8 N, 78.4 W. So, a decent initialization but not perfect.
 
5:00 discussion:

Dorian has been nearly stationary for the past 18 hours, as
steering currents in its vicinity have collapsed. The global
models indicate that a weakness in the subtropical ridge will
develop in response to a trough that will amplify along the east
coast of the United States within the next day or so. Dorian
should respond to these changes by beginning to move
north-northwestward toward the weakness in the ridge a little later
today. The system should turn northward with a gradual increase in
forward speed as it moves through the weakness in around 48 hours.
Later in the period, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward on
the southern side of the trough. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to the model
consensus.
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
EYE WALL LOOKING MIGHTY CRAPPY

View attachment 22944
Click to expand...

5:00 discussion:

The eyewall has become a little less
defined over the past few hours on radar. On infrared satellite
images, the eye remains fairly well defined, but the surrounding
deep convection is somewhat fragmented. Upper-level outflow is a
bit restricted over the western semicircle of the circulation. The
initial intensity is held at 105 kt, which is a blend of subjective
Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. Dorian is expected to more
or less maintain its intensity for about 36 hours. After that time
period, increasing vertical shear should cause gradual weakening.
However, the system is likely to remain a major hurricane for the
next few days. The official forecast is closest to the latest LGEM
guidance.
 
ICON shift west and looks like Euro track shifted west slightly also.... one thing of note, no sharp NE kick ots on the overnight runns
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GFS continues trend of weaker trough stronger WAR. Today gonna be crucial day for forecast, does it start to move, how strong/weak will it be, the trough, the ridge...
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And, its still sitting there......which was totally not expected. Horrible situation for Bahamas.

NHC has the storm approaching Charleston at 2 am Thursday and passing by that day. HWRF has it approaching at noon on Thursday.
High tide on Thursday is 2:01 PM.
 
A comment to this tweet said "boy oh boy, you guys are getting all your marbles on this trough".
Yes sir, we are.

Always the unexpected......the plan for last night was it would be moving by now. If it misses the trough.....

 
Of course it will........current time changes impact downstream.
Until the thing starts moving, we don't know.

 
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