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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

The hwrf and euro both have him only moving about 70 miles nw by 8pm and the other models are faster.


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Henry2326 said:
And it makes a ton of difference from impact of high tide....
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Just a thought.. models also had him being impacted by SW Shear, and if he "misses" the trough, then would not the shear effect be less, so if he moved at say 10 mph over the warmer not upwelled " waters, he could get stronger than models have progged... Just Sayin..
 
gawxnative said:
Just a thought.. models also had him being impacted by SW Shear, and if he "misses" the trough, then would not the shear effect be less, so if he moved at say 10 mph over the warmer not upwelled " waters, he could get stronger than models have progged... Just Sayin..
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To your point.....look at the small window to hitch a ride.
My concern: the trough is more shallow that forecasted and the high bridges before it can get there.....
Edit: to meet the trough, it has to begin moving st noon today.
T-2.......
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Guys... she doesn't look the best and is weakening because she has been stuck in one spot for a long time. She can easily organize when she gets on the move again, but I do think we saw Dorian peak already, and we likely won't have a Category 5 off the GA/SC/NC coasts.
 
That GEFS sure is determined to track over ILM. Looks rough from MYR to ILM.

AL05_2019090306_GEFS_0-120h_large.png
 
I believe the euro and what it is showing with regards to not much movement today. The western ridge is still strong and pushing a northerly "wall" if you will. Not much steering today..

steering.gif
 
Still seeing some signs that the storm will continue to grow, with yet another larger eyewall and wind field expanding on it's way up the coast. That throws a monkey wrench into a lot of forecasts in regards to impacts, especially on the Carolina coasts.
 
Marsh Harbor has a pop of 6,000. Abaco Islands about 18,000. Seen some terrible reports of bodies floating around, but that's social media news. Hopefully by tomorrow , folks can begin getting in there to help and digest how severe it is. Aint gonna be pretty I'm sure.
 
Shawn said:
Guys... she doesn't look the best and is weakening because she has been stuck in one spot for a long time. She can easily organize when she gets on the move again, but I do think we saw Dorian peak already, and we likely won't have a Category 5 off the GA/SC/NC coasts.
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I'm just worried about a cat 2 hitting NC, and that looks like a real possibility.
 
I think the possibility of restrengthening exists if it can start moving. So far, Dorian has been unpredictable. It's best to continue to keep watching, be prepared and hope for the best.
 
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