Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[weatherguy]

New 00z GFS is more SW compared to 12z and 18z.
00z may have also been initialized slightly too far north as well because of this wobble WSW.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

And what are those?
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The pattern was much more favorable with Matthew never losing some west movement near Cuba. Dorian on the other hand, is getting pulled, shunted, slowed and yanked north after seeing a stop sign.

 

[Metwannabe]

How when 18z ICON was closer to Myrtle Beach? “Further West” is a bit of a reach there...

It's slight but it is a shift west from 18z

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[Ollie Williams]

How when 18z ICON was closer to Myrtle Beach? “Further West” is a bit of a reach there...

Must be your bird vision not being able too see it correctly.

 

[Arcc]

Get back on topic please.

And that was the straw.

 

[deltadog03]

at HR54 the GFS looks like its trying to turn Dorian into FL on a NW heading...lets see where this goes.

 

[GravityWave]

How when 18z ICON was closer to Myrtle Beach? “Further West” is a bit of a reach there...

The 00z ICON was closer to the coast for basically the entire track.

 

[Philstorm91]

This continued WSW jog past the last Bahama island (Grand Bahama) is just ominous for anyone on the FL east coast. If it doesn't slow down or change direction soon, the models will have to play catchup. The 0z runs that have come in so far seem to be doing just that.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Very little west...for 4 days out...I don’t think it means much. Well, I mean good that it’s not changing a lot to send it inland.

 

[Henry2326]

This continued WSW jog past the last Bahama island (Grand Bahama) is just ominous for anyone on the FL east coast. If it doesn't slow down or change direction soon, the models will have to play catchup. The 0z runs that have come in so far seem to be doing just that.

The models have been playing catch up for a week....

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Very little west...for 4 days out...I don’t think it means much. Well, I mean good that it’s not changing a lot to send it inland.

Well birdie I don’t think things are gonna fly east if that trough continues to look weaker and the ST ridge continues to flex even more

 

[Metwannabe]

These slight shifts have huge implications

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[Myfrotho704_]

Trough does actually look a tiny bit stronger tho

 

[Philstorm91]

The models have been playing catch up for a week....

Yep, and this is what makes tracking the storm so suspenseful. Nobody seems to really know where this ends up, how fast, or how strong.

 

[BHS1975]

Well birdie I don’t think things are gonna fly east if that trough continues to look weaker and the ST ridge continues to flex even more

Yeah and we got 4 more days of trends.


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[Snowfan]

I have some very sad news:

 

[jackendrickwx]

GFS

 

[Henry2326]

Yep, and this is what makes tracking the storm so suspenseful. Nobody seems to really know where this ends up, how fast, or how strong.

I'm certain "suspenseful" isn't the word I would use for a community that might be blown to pieces....our homes, schools, and communities could take years to re-build.

 

[Arcc]

If Dorian wasn't over Grand Bahama, I think its would go Sub-900mb. The IR appearence is actually improved and the giant growing feeder band really gives a Rita look to it.

 

[SD]

Trough does actually look a tiny bit stronger tho

Yeah then the Bermuda ridge is stronger so the net net is negligible changes

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