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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Brick Tamland said:
Not silly at all. The models have been further west all day. The storm is still moving west. There need to be changes overnight or the SE coast could be in big trouble.
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I would agree...if this motion contues (generally) then the euro op and ens could be super fun/interesting.
 
I kinda alluded to it earlier but I think we're going to have a good gauge on what's going on shortly after this storm reaches Freeport. If it throws up the brakes or at least slows to a crawl, then that will mean a further east turn and less impacts on land. If it does so later then well, thousands of people have problems in Florida and not exactly the time to leave, so hopefully that doesn't happen.

Gonna be about 8-12 more hours of nail biting.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Well it helps a lot it’s no longer moving at 13mph. The loss in forward speed compared to 24-48 hours ago is like half...so no it doesn't have to do anything quickly. It bought itself time to slow down, stall and head north and hopefully some wobbles east up the coast.
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Hopefully so but it did actually increase speed a mile up to 6 mph if that does increase over next few readings we can throw all the models out
 
Icon starts off moving Dorian WNW motion when its moving west or wsw. So I'm throwing that run out. Now cast time
 
Hurricane Matthew was in a very unique environment to be that far west along the south-east coast. I don’t see it with Dorian just too many signs suggesting to the right vs the left of Matthews track.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Hurricane Matthew was in a very unique environment to be that far west along the south-east coast. I don’t see it with Dorian just too many signs suggesting to the right vs the left of Matthews track.
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And what are those?

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GREATLY appreciate everybody's continued commentary/analysis. I was at the Braves game today (another great win; that's 21 wins in 27 games attended this season), but was able to somewhat keep up through the afternoon and evening thanks to this board. Again, thank you.

I can't help but think, with every passing hour this center works west at 5 mph, 6 mph, it gives me a foreboding feeling. I only can hope the folks along the East Central and Northeastern Florida coastlines did not let down their guard a day or two ago with the easterly trends.

I lived on St. Simons Island, Ga., for six years in the early and mid 2000s, and still have many friends down there. They had flooding issues with Matthew. Surge could be a real issue if Dorian tracks close enough; hence why the evacs east of I-95 were ordered this evening.

Thanks again for the knowledge share and info transfer. Everybody stay safe!

--30--
 
This is almost identical to HRWF except for timing. HRWF is Friday at 18z while Icon is Thursday at 15z.

Ironically the Icon closely matched this timing with NHC.

Icon makes landfall at SC/NC line but very very close in several places.

Screenshot_20190901-233537.jpg
 
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