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Hurricane Debby

SD said:
Not you specifically it's the just typical let's cancel events before they start stuff. We all do it from time to time but there's still 48hrs to go here so it's weird to me
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Too be honest I didn't think she could get back to 60mph and it gives me some slight hope that I'll be east of center and that's where the winds are. Maybe I'll squeeze out a gust or 2 to TS force tonight
 
A lot of military national guard and power trucks headed north on 95 away from Savannah. The winds actually seem to be drying the water up.
 
IK I wasnt supposed to get but 4-6" over here IN CLT Metro but yea..... umm I havent seen a drop and sun is out. I think next time we need to quit with the broadcasting extreme scenarios and cut everything in 1/2 minimum. Historically it was feesable to have a 100 year flood from this, 8-12" SAV/CSO and the coastal cities and 4-6" Elsewhere was suffice. They really put graphics out showing point forecast for 15-20" in spots of Sandhills ect.....No chance id ever put anything like that on air or online with my name on it IDC if every model had 15-20" im not going over 8-12" you dont look like a dumbass for busting low. What the public doesnt know wont hurt them
 
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I think for areas along and east of us1 the system is going to be defined by if we see these convecrive tails develop from offshore into the circulation. If they don't then yes the highn end rain totals will bust high, if they do then we have real problems tomorrow with rounds of 1-3 inch per hour rains with embedded tornadoes/supercell structures as sb cape increases on the E and NE and eventually SE side of the circulation. If we get one that has limited movement for a few hours it will easily drop 3-6+ inches of rain on top of what looks like 1-3/2-4 with the main band of rain tonight.

You can see the NAMs, rgem and arw2 really hit us hard with these even the less impressive fv3 hires and gfs hint at them.
 
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The GFS seems pretty reasonable in terms of distribution, if we believe the more western track in the guidance of late. However, I think it's amounts may be a bit low.

gfs_apcpn_seus_15.png

On the other end of the spectrum, you have the Canadians. It maintains a much wider swath of rain on the north and east side. Without the system recovering, I would lean against this solution. I definitely think the widespread 8+" amounts are high. Maybe in spots but the model has a rather large area of extremely high totals. It seems overdone, based on radar trends.

gem_apcpn_seus_15.png

I know the forecast is that most of the heavy stuff moves in tonight. But I'm skeptical that the system is going to be organized enough to bring in the Canadian/RGEM totals over such a wide area.
 
Rain Cold said:
The GFS seems pretty reasonable in terms of distribution, if we believe the more western track in the guidance of late. However, I think it's amounts may be a bit low.

View attachment 149624

On the other end of the spectrum, you have the Canadians. It maintains a much wider swath of rain on the north and east side. Without the system recovering, I would lean against this solution. I definitely think the widespread 8+" amounts are high. Maybe in spots but the model has a rather large area of extremely high totals. It seems overdone, based on radar trends.

View attachment 149625

I know the forecast is that most of the heavy stuff moves in tonight. But I'm skeptical that the system is going to be organized enough to bring in the Canadian/RGEM totals over such a wide area.
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Maybe these models meet in the middle when it comes to totals. I think 6" to 8" is a good bet as of now for the Triangle area. If Debby does strengthen to near hurricane status again (70 MPH winds) or a little higher I think the NWS may have to adjust the wind forecasts upward a bit.
 
weather bubba said:
Maybe these models meet in the middle when it comes to totals. I think 6" to 8" is a good bet as of now for the Triangle area. If Debby does strengthen to near hurricane status again (70 MPH winds) or a little higher I think the NWS may have to adjust the wind forecasts upward a bit.
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I think it's a tall order for it to strengthen at this point. But we may get under a band for a while like SD said. I don't see any consolidation of the precip shield, even close to the storm, down in SC...with the exception being along the NC coast near Cape Hatteras. Maybe it all fills in later?
 
SD said:
I think for areas along and east of us1 the system is going to be defined by if we see these convecrive tails develop from offshore into the circulation. If they don't then yes the highn end rain totals will bust high, if they do then we have real problems tomorrow with rounds of 1-3 inch per hour rains with embedded tornadoes/supercell structures as sb cape increases on the E and NE and eventually SE side of the circulation. If we get one that has limited movement for a few hours it will easily drop 3-6+ inches of rain on top of what looks like 1-3/2-4 with the main band of rain tonight.

You can see the NAMs, rgem and arw2 really hit us hard with these even the less impressive fv3 hires and gfs hint at them.
Click to expand...
Myrtle getting hammered now! Live coverage on TWC , looking legit TS now!
 
On radar and satellite, it looks like it’s exhausted all the dry air out of the system and it’s filling in nicely! CR and SD gonna get 5-8”, final call!
 
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