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Pattern Hotober

Cold bias or not, the GEFS is doubling down on the blocking. Probably was to fast swinging that trough through and thus it probably is warmer than previous runs.

trend-gefs-2019101612-f216.500h_anom.na.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yea gfs shows this, warm core trying to hold but there some CAA at the northwest/west side of the system so it’s not 100% tropical although it’s sorta close, with that area of CAA it would only reinforce that cooler dome View attachment 24503
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Looking a little deeper, this will be quite an interesting look. Insane wind fields on the warm front of this sub-tropical storm with lots of turning with height thanks to it being not stacked. The panhandle along with southern AL/GA will have to watch out for an elevated risk from tornadoes more so than from fully tropical systems.
 
Arcc said:
Looking a little deeper, this will be quite an interesting look. Insane wind fields on the warm front of this sub-tropical storm with lots of turning with height thanks to it being not stacked. The panhandle along with southern AL/GA will have to watch out for an elevated risk from tornadoes more so than from fully tropical systems.
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Yeah soundings ain’t bad with this one, seen some soundings where winds are nearly backing from the SE only aiding in 0-1km SRH 945C5BDE-F087-417F-A082-AA482B920718.pngA0F6B7C8-05CF-4D60-9773-2CE18163657E.png
 
So how’s the track of the gulf entity on today’s runs? Still shifting East?
 
I was incorrect on last nights rain, my apologies! Actually.69 in the bucket!??
 
Arcc said:
Looking a little deeper, this will be quite an interesting look. Insane wind fields on the warm front of this sub-tropical storm with lots of turning with height thanks to it being not stacked. The panhandle along with southern AL/GA will have to watch out for an elevated risk from tornadoes more so than from fully tropical systems.
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I could see that being an issue potentially as well
 
Cold is crashing in! It’s currently 73
 
GFS has the low going over SAV! What anothe fail! By 12z tomorrow, I won’t even get showers!?
 
Pretty funny...last year, the last 10 days of October with nearly identical modeled pattern.

GEFS Ensembles North America 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 312.pngcompday.X3Hlw4bbdo.gif
 
Has any major city outside of the mountains in the Southeast (Virginia and Kentucky not included) ever reported measurable snowfall in October? RDU never has, and I doubt ATL or GSP has either.
 
I know most would like to see a similar look advertised on gefs for the winter, but can we even get anything remotely close in winter, and if not, howcome? Cooler weather is good since it is October, but the longer wavelengths will be interesting if we can get a colder pattern to setup during winter.
 
The weather in October the winter will...oh wait that's November lol.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Just got a Convective heavy rain shower with a few graupel pellets mixed in, not suprised givin 500 jkg of SBcape and cold air aloft (freezing level at 650mb) that counts as frozen precip
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Your tr of frozen, just screwed you for the next 5 months! Congrats on the win!
 
Here the cumulus congestus that produced that shower/graupel. 0629CB97-87FE-421C-A05F-CD1AC2B0EAC2.jpegF67EECEB-667C-447B-81A0-C1388E7F9E10.jpeg2BDC4DF3-D373-4E5C-9027-958C18C6E0CD.jpeglikely the last picture of any convection from me in 2019, until we meet again, spring and summer, and this time it’s not just gonna be NC, I’m probably gonna start going to setups in tornado alley next spring/summer, tbh tho I would like to see a tornado out there, but I would rather aim for days with better structure
 
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Arcc said:
Yep, it’s getting close to fantasy season. The GFS is alone in being crazy, the Euro at 240hr is teasing.
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yeah that trough and system in the 240 range has been interesting. likely just long range fantasy. I think we all are hungry for a snowstorm after last winter.. Its only mid October. Would be very difficult to get snow outside of the mountains unless we had a perfect setup.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Here the cumulus congestus that produced that shower/graupel. View attachment 24530View attachment 24531View attachment 24532likely the last picture of any convection from me in 2019, until we meet again, spring and summer, and this time it’s not just gonna be NC, I’m probably gonna start going to setups in tornado alley next spring/summer, tbh tho I would like to see a tornado out there, but I would rather aim for days with better structure
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I love these convective days. I Remember one year in Greenville, NC we had snow showers with temps in the mid/upper 40s.

Also I remember one year a snow squall came through NC. some reports of a quick inch of snow and thundersnow. Like a severe cold front line but it was snow. Was a very fun day.

Can't remember the year of it though.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I love these convective days. I Remember one year in Greenville, NC we had snow showers with temps in the mid/upper 40s.

Also I remember one year a snow squall came through NC. some reports of a quick inch of snow and thundersnow. Like a severe cold front line but it was snow. Was a very fun day.

Can't remember the year of it though.
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You Might be talking about this one, line of Convective snow showers formed off the mountains associated with a MCV/lee trough and fed on instability and steep low level lapse rates as it sagged southeast, and produced thundersnow and gusty outflow winds along with it 84279299-3869-4ACD-9874-7F6850AA3801.jpeg
 
Fountainguy97 said:
yeah that trough and system in the 240 range has been interesting. likely just long range fantasy. I think we all are hungry for a snowstorm after last winter.. Its only mid October. Would be very difficult to get snow outside of the mountains unless we had a perfect setup.
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Yeah, the chance of snow is pretty much none, that being said the cold shot may be legit.
 
ICON still riding with the GFS on these crazy cool highs
icon_T2m_seus_25.png
 
It snowed in parts of Upstate SC and western midlands Oct 31 into Nov 1 (a.m.) in 2014.
I have mum’s and pumpkin pics with snow on them. So snow in October isn’t impossible.
2 inches on the ground before it melted quickly in Clinton (South of 85). Nearly 6 inches in Gilbert, Sc.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Sleet City USA said:
ICON still riding with the GFS on these crazy cool highs
icon_T2m_seus_25.png
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That’s assuming rain / evap cooling locking those temps in. It keeps trending east and we will be 75 and p/c
 
18z gfs obviously broken, we toss!!AC38A9C7-F59B-486F-A2E1-E18A5CD7DC26.png14732E6D-EF56-49C4-B620-2D9425214C8B.png
 
Yep! Broken! Top is from the “ tropical “ system,!?????9C3E3FED-04DB-48D0-BA27-9ED5E6AB501B.png
 
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