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Pattern Hotober

GeorgiaGirl said:
Surprisingly no unless KAGS isn't recording well. But I think it's in an area that gets cooler. It managed to drop 3 degrees in an hour somehow to actually go below 77.
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Yeah, I just saw that...crazy.
 
Yeah, would still expect the SE to be AN, it’s what we do. But, it should feel much better outside and hopefully the AC will stop running all night.

C3F7A7F0-7564-460F-ADE0-9E1CEBA6EE94.pngB10DC632-3CE4-49A6-B140-E7187768926A.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Euro was wrong about this current wedge! Took it 3 or 4 days to pick up on it, behind the GFS, euro sucks! I don’t understand all the Euro worship
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Maybe that's why DT is wrong so often. He puts all his chips in the Euro. Already talking about a big coastal next weekend. It was the 0Z model, I'm sure it's gone now at 12z.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Euro was wrong about this current wedge! Took it 3 or 4 days to pick up on it, behind the GFS, euro sucks! I don’t understand all the Euro worship
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It may have been wrong about the wedge, but the GFS was wrong about the timing and extent of the CAD.
 
Looks like I could get my first freeze of the season on top of Pisgah Mountain next weekend ?
 
Finally!
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Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 
I don’t know which model is showing this, but I’m all in like Dabo Stinky!9C0C086F-DBE2-4C61-A1A6-19FA868EA432.png
 
I might be wrong but I don't think the GFS was ever very excited about Sunday with the CAD. It locked into Saturday and always had Sunday warmer like slightly past 170. It just had different temps and at some points was too strong before it settled into being the main areas that benefit from CAD (in this case where you still have the factors that is causing the major heat).

For that matter, the GFS likes the idea of CAD on Tuesday too. So, we'll see if we see another similar day in areas that get it.
 
The snow is getting closer ! Recently it snowed in the Rockies. Now they are talking about snow next week in MN. Only a matter of time before the south gets in on the action !
 
:Weenie::Weenie:
Run 10/5 18z
Forecast 2 am Saturday, October 19th
Tis the Season
The First Ensemble-member (#3) for snow over central NC from GSO to RDU. Here's an RDU Meteogram
gfs-se-snow_total_multimember_panel-1680800.pngGEFSMA_prec_ptypens_324.png

gfs-KRDU-indiv_snow-0298400.png
Edit: The next time this will happen is, 10/10 18z GEFS M5GEFSMA_prec_ptypens_372.png
 
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KyloG said:
Yeah, would still expect the SE to be AN, it’s what we do. But, it should feel much better outside and hopefully the AC will stop running all night.

View attachment 24271View attachment 24272
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This slightly warmer than normal but way closer to normal and very pleasant vs what was just experienced is precisely what the EPS has been predicting as opposed to the many cold biased GEFS runs that were right at or below normal. Your best bet most of the time, especially based on recent years, is to go with the warmer EPS over the cooler GEFS, which has a bias to overdo E US troughing/western US ridging. Actually, at times even the warmer EPS in recent years has been too cool!

I’m so looking forward to the cooloff. In the transition, I got ~1.5” of rain today from several thunderstorms. This was the most rain by far I got since Dorian, which gave me no more than this.
 
In terms of anomalous SE US heatwaves, the one just experienced is arguably the greatest on record in terms of a combo of duration and anomalies for a good portion of the SE. I’ll focus on Macon, GA:

- Latest hottest of the year by 2 weeks (vs 1997’s 99 on 9/20) on 10/4, which had a 103 that tied with 9/17
- The 103 of 10/4 was a whopping 26 days later than the prior latest 103+ before 2019, which was 9/8 in 1925.
- 11 days in a row of hottest daily record highs without ties 9/24-10/4! The prior longest streak is only 4, last set in 1986!
- The largest margin on record vs 2nd hottest for the day was set twice at a whopping 8 degrees!
- @SoutheastRidge was right to call this the most unusual SE weather event of our lives.
 
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