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Pattern Hotober

Lows look to be cooler then forecast tonight. Had a forecast low here of 62 while currently the temperature is already down to 59 and has been dropping pretty consistently the last few hours.
 
Over two inches in my backyard last night . It was awesome . The thunder and lightning were amazing !!!
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While at least we won’t be dealing with upper 90s, it looks like temps have moderated a bit from the originally forecasted highs of mid 70s and now looks like low to mid 80s. It really is annoying when you can bank on these models being 5-10 degrees warmer than what they are showing once it gets closer to verification.

To be clear, when I am referring to the temp situation, I am speaking for my area of central Alabama.
 
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Call me crazy, but I think the GFS has a good handle on this wedge across the Carolinas this weekend.


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Parker said:
While at least we won’t be dealing with upper 90s, it looks like temps have moderated a bit from the originally forecasted highs of mid 70s and now looks like low to mid 80s. It really is annoying when you can bank on these models being 5-10 degrees warmer than what they are showing once it gets closer to verification.
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This is less of a problem if you ignore the solidly cold biased GEFS and GFS (FV3) in the SE US. Go with the EPS and you’ll have a much better shot at not being disappointed although even it can verify too cold, too (though usually not as much when it does).
Regardless, it is as you stated so much of a relief compared to how the SE has been. Mid 80s vs upper 90s? No comparison!

Edit: I’m so not looking forward to the FV3 being operational this winter! Is there a way to formally put the FV3 on “ignore”? ;)
 
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Parker said:
While at least we won’t be dealing with upper 90s, it looks like temps have moderated a bit from the originally forecasted highs of mid 70s and now looks like low to mid 80s. It really is annoying when you can bank on these models being 5-10 degrees warmer than what they are showing once it gets closer to verification.

To be clear, when I am referring to the temp situation, I am speaking for my area of central Alabama.
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Easy grasshopper it’s a process
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I could be wrong but yeah, I think the Euro is about to take a bit of a L on next weekend along with the GFS. I didn't see all the runs and I had a bunch on my mind so I could be wrong here, but it had it as low as the mid 70s at some point. My last look? It's in the low to mid 80s. That's a L to me even if it was the first to start warming.

Of course it did start correcting earlier probably but that shows that you can't really forecast beyond a few days.
 
well, lets put it this way.....I will take low to mid 80's *with low humidity* over the upper 90's to low 100's and moderate to high humidity any day of the week. I am just glad the pattern is not stagnant going forward. Its staring to move for sure.
 
deltadog03 said:
well, lets put it this way.....I will take low to mid 80's *with low humidity* over the upper 90's to low 100's and moderate to high humidity any day of the week. I am just glad the pattern is not stagnant going forward. Its staring to move for sure.
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Yeah i don’t get the complaining honestly. Did people think we were gonna go from upper 90s to low 70s and hold there ? Upper 70s low 80s is much better than the last two months . Stepping down a little at a time is great with me


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Storm5 said:
Yeah i don’t get the complaining honestly. Did people think we were gonna go from upper 90s to low 70s and hold there ? Upper 70s low 80s is much better than the last two months . Stepping down a little at a time is great with me


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I hear you but we can’t seem to get a drop of rain out of the pattern change. The front for tonight and tomorrow will give you guys a good soak and shrivel up once it gets here.


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This morning was actually kind of cold with the wind. We were only at 69*F as of 11am.

Big difference from the late morning temps surging to around 90*F over the past 2 weeks.

Low clouds are breaking up now though, so that's the end of the CAD. Should make a late day run into the mid-80s.
 
SouthATLwx said:
This morning was actually kind of cold with the wind. We were only at 69*F as of 11am.

Big difference from the late morning temps surging to around 90*F over the past 2 weeks.

Low clouds are breaking up now though, so that's the end of the CAD. Should make a late day run into the mid-80s.
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Mid 80s in October is ridiculous. Isnt your avg high close to 75?
 
SD said:
Pretty sad that people are saying still way above normal is all good

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I was thinking the same thing. If the forecast goes up any more for Augusta, they will be in the 90s all week.
 
The average high for "here" is supposedly 77-78 in October but what I've really noticed is it doesn't totally dive until two weeks in, at least, lately. It's like early October is now September and then the last half of October is actually October. The big difference from recently is the anomalous ridge made it insufferable and depending on "when" that dive happens, what we might average out to could end up +10.

The Euro's actually basically held at mid 80s at least at the times I've looked at for the week which means that the NWS for me is choosing to use a blend instead of discarding the GFS and...I think side on the idea of a little CAD happening for Tuesday?

Big difference though I believe from 0z and 12z lol on next weekend.
 
No Complaints here. Yesterday we where in the
Low 60s all day. Today maxed at 73. Tommorow is 78,then back to the 60s and low 70s rest of the week. Just hope we can get some rain tommorow night.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Good news! The euro is faster with the cold front and cooler west of the apps. Looks a lot like yesterdays 12z run
12z
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00z
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Get used to this look for the rest of the winter for folks E of the apps! Especially before a winter storm
 
SouthATLwx said:
It's all about expectations.

When you're coming off several weeks with temps of 95*F - 100*F, mid 80s can feel quite refreshing.
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Oh I agree that things are much better but near/above 80 in October doesn't move the needle for me as far as being cool or fall like. Give me a sunny day between 70-75 with dewpoint in the 40s to low 50s

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Hope we can squeeze out a half inch tomorrow. I’m not holding my breath but man we are rain starved. I was at Big Creek greenway and all of the ponds were totally dry. Never seen that before.


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Appears a change in the forecast has happened! Upper 70s tomorrow, then atleast 2 days in the 60s , the wedge is stronger and will hold longer than thought! Maybe some rain!?
 
A nice day here again. Clouds stuck around most of the day until the late afternoon. The temperature was pretty nice again with a high of 70.7 here. Hoping to get a small amount of rain tomorrow, but it looks like it will mostly be to my west. Hopefully others can still get rain though.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Appears a change in the forecast has happened! Upper 70s tomorrow, then atleast 2 days in the 60s , the wedge is stronger and will hold longer than thought! Maybe some rain!?
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I don't see the days in the 60s? Other than Tuesday's high of 70 being close
 
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