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Pattern Hotober

Very good 0z gfs run so far, and I'm not just talking about a cool down but the rain. Starting to see our rains back
 
Boy, isn't is this nice to see
gfs_apcpn_seus_61.png
 
FallsLake said:
Looking at the 6z GFS, many folks across the SE (especially upper SE) will be able to turn off their ACs, for the season, starting late Friday. Of course, there'll be ups and downs in the temps but if you can stand 80/60 for the warm days, AC time is about over...:)
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Meanwhile, let's pull out all the stops to take out the century mark tomorrow. Going to be a shame to only reach 98 or 99.
 
Talking about reaching 100, here's my grid forecast for the next few days. I'm surrounded by the lake and still have 98 listed for Thursday. I think RDU has a real shot.
jjjj.jpg
 
FallsLake said:
Talking about reaching 100, here's my grid forecast for the next few days. I'm surrounded by the lake and still have 98 listed for Thursday. I think RDU has a real shot.
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Record high for PGV in Oct is 96, this is our forecast for tomorrow...seems like the chances of a new record high for Oct is all but a lock....

Thursday
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Heat index values as high as 103. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph.
 
Downeastnc said:
Record high for PGV in Oct is 96, this is our forecast for tomorrow...seems like the chances of a new record high for Oct is all but a lock....

Thursday
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Heat index values as high as 103. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph.
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Hey if we're going to suffer might as well be worth while, break some records.
 
Let’s hope (and the way it looks like *Cough* CFS) that’s it’s the big warm up before a very cold winter.


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Really hoping we can get some sort of low riding the front next week. Another weak/dry frontal passage would suck.

14-km EPS Global North America MSLP Anomaly 162.png14-km EPS Global North America 500 hPa Height Anom 162.png
 
Sleet City USA said:
12km NAM has some wild high temps for the CAD areas. Does long range NAM have a cold bias?
namconus_T2m_seus_51.png
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It's also showing high relative humidity, extensive cloud cover and most likely drizzle/sprinkles. So while I'm not buying it, with those conditions temps would certainly be on the low end

1570029901270.png
 
metwannabe said:
It's also showing high relative humidity, extensive cloud cover and most likely drizzle/sprinkles. So while I'm not buying it, with those conditions temps would certainly be on the low end

View attachment 24203
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Did notice the NWS forecast had good cloud cover, not quite as extensive as this, more concentrated in western carolinas and NE GA
 
I'd lean toward the nam and its heavier depiction of cloud cover /drizzle all day Saturday. Nice little HP sitting in perfect spot to lift air up eastern side of Apps. Nam is always better getting the micro climate details right with Cads than the Global s.
 
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