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Pattern Hotober

First cold front of the season coming through my area in south Louisiana tomorrow afternoon! I agree with many posting here. It's not perfect fall weather just yet, but highs in the mid 80s with low humidity sure beats the near century mark Augtober grade heat that's been grilling this region for the last several weeks. Bring on the changes, one front at a time.
 
Will Rossman said:
First cold front of the season coming through my area in south Louisiana tomorrow afternoon! I agree with many posting here. It's not perfect fall weather just yet, but highs in the mid 80s with low humidity sure beats the near century mark Augtober grade heat that's been grilling this region for the last several weeks. Bring on the changes, one front at a time.
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Anything is better than the endless 90s
 
GFS pretty much kills the front for next weekend. Minimal moisture makes it east of Alabama. We will have to settle for upper 50’s in ATL for overnight lows. Could be worse.


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ATLwxfan said:
GFS pretty much kills the front for next weekend. Minimal moisture makes it east of Alabama. We will have to settle for upper 50’s in ATL for overnight lows. Could be worse.


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Northern Georgia looks like mid 40s except for the heat island known as the ATL
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Storm5 said:
Northern Georgia looks like mid 40s except for the heat island known as the ATL
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I feel like this is the problem with these dry frontal passages. You almost need the rain to cool off the island.


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SD said:
Not always.
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585 dm at this time of the year would likely equate to low 80s, that typhoon could bring some record breaking warmth if things go right, but that’s a very long time
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
585 dm at this time of the year would likely equate to low 80s, that typhoon could bring some record breaking warmth if things go right, but that’s a very long time
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The way this year is going, we could probably have ALL teleconnections be good, snd still burn.
 
We'll see if I can be a successful jinxer of warm things. I told my dad that unfortunately a recurving typhoon is going to lead to the pacific jet blasting most of the US with warm air and his answer was "they can't predict that far in advance".

In reality it might be too late even down this way for complete stupidity to happen. Although the average averages out to the upper 70s, I think the average high is still low 80s early in the month, but late in the month its on the line of low-mid 70s and I saw upper 70s to low 80s in the very long range.

If we don't see a dive however like 2018 and other recent years, this month is going to average out to dumb temperatures for October.
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah , this is a misconception


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Yep and so is a +PNA, -NAO, MJO p8,1,2 or COD, record IOD, the SOI, Siberian snowpack, ENSO, etc, etc..... all I need is a cold front to lay down some fresh dry arctic air and a slp ride up the coast. And I couldn't give 2 poops in a pack house what causes it
 
metwannabe said:
Yep and so is a +PNA, -NAO, MJO p8,1,2 or COD, record IOD, the SOI, Siberian snowpack, ENSO, etc, etc..... all I need is a cold front to lay down some fresh dry arctic air and a slp ride up the coast. And I couldn't give 2 poops in a pack house what causes it
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You know, all I'm asking for is a little "outside fire" weather. :cool:
 
You almost get the sense that every 2 to 3 weeks we will get a push of mild air to knock back temps slightly and we still will manage 10° above normal.


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Most of the time when you have a SER, you have cold air building. When the SER eases up the cold comes rushing in and strong. As long as Dec/Jan/Feb delivers, let it do what its gonna do.
 
Going to be very warm here on Thurs and Fri ( upper 70s to near 80 ), but we could have our first 30s of the season on Sat night.
 
Doesn’t look like I will see any rain today, which was expected, but I do think tomorrow is going to have a small chance to give me something. Even if I get less then 0.10 I will call that a win. Anything is better then nothing.
 
The extended could get fun if something like the 12z euro verified with the block across central Canada the first upper low getting blocked across the east and the typhoon induced trough digging in. Its going to be difficult to not get a ridge in the east with the incoming jet but there are some ways for it to be mitigated or short lived

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I guess we should stay warm if until at least the first of December, then it can all break loose in time for December and January.. the last two years parts of the South have seen snow in dec, with not much more after that.
 
Apparently it rained at my house while I was at work....it did not rain at work and I did not see puddles till almost home....it could not have lasted long but the puddles are legit so it had to be a heavier shower.
 
12k NAM has me staying in the 60s basically all the way to Friday afternoon. I'll always default to NWS forecast (which disagrees with 3 days of mid 70s), but something to keep in mind. NAM did do well with last weekend's CAD
 
No rain in sight on the euro. Looks like some places in central nc may end up with 60+ days with no rain

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SD said:
No rain in sight on the euro. Looks like some places in central nc may end up with 60+ days with no rain

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I have a good shot at rain today here actually. It's about time after over a month with no substantial rainfall, so I hope it produces something worthwhile.
 
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