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Pattern Hotober

Do not be surprised if the GFS shows even more bullish temperatures.
1. It has been digging further south (close to a cutoff low)
2. It has been trending more positive, means that it will take longer to shift negative (flat trough)
Edit: At least for the Rockies. Figures as It moves to the southeast, it gets stuck behind a ridge and quickly turns negatively tilted as it doesn't meet up with a low in the Atlantic.
gfs_z500a_us_fh168_trend.gif
 
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Soundings just for fun outa Mississippi next week, that’s a nice hodo with a nice critical angle that would allow supercellular mesocyclones to wrap around nicely /occlude, even with somewhat low SRH58E754B4-7D0F-4093-9CBE-34C5DBDD5CB0.png
 
Charlotte experienced a nearly sixty degree temperature swing during the October 1954 heatwave. The temperature rebounded to 91° on the 13th. Hurricane Hazel followed two days later.

10/06/54........98.1°/71.1°
10/07/54........72.0°/46.0°
10/08/54........71.1°/39.9°
 
SouthATLwx said:
Newnan hit 100*F today (in *OCTOBER*), for the 5th time this year.

ATL hit 97*F.
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And look at this: FFC has just as of an 8:25 PM release revised KATL high up from 97 to 98!! They said it hit 98 at 3:30 PM even though the report issued prior to this that had the high of 97 wasn’t released til after 4:30 PM:


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
825 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2019
...............................

..THE ATLANTA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3 2019

VALID AS OF 0800 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1878 TO 2019

WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..............................................................

TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 98R 330 PM
 
Tarheel1 said:
by

please let it snow in October, those give us our best winters!! The sea ice growth, is already in our favor, blockbuster winter incoming!???
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NO SNOW FOR BRYCE! Like this post if you agree.
 
NWS says cloud cover all day Saturday. That should keep us below 70, easy.
 
That backdoor front making serious progress SW, temp only 77 imby and 91 at RDU.... hang on it's coming.
 
GaWx said:
Noon temps over N GA are averaging only 1 cooler than 24 hours ago. So, it is another incredibly hot day there.
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Sorry to rub salt in the wound but that backdoor cold front has done work here, stiff NE breeze, lower DP's, a little overcast and temp steady at 77. That forecast high of 88 in real jeopardy here today.
 
It's happening!!! LOL! Finally we get to see some wild fantasy runs.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_63.png
 
Some props to the GFS (or FV3, whatever you want to call it). I think it was the first to lock in on the idea of the CAD/backdoor cold front for this weekend. and it did so honestly I think even earlier than 140-150 hours. Only difference was it was pushed off to Saturday and probably wasn't totally "on" because of a cold bias, but the CAD solution is going to happen.

Maybe another blind squirrel finding a nut, but I'm thankful we're going to have the CAD. These last days of the heat were unbearable.
 
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