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Pattern Hotober

Arcc said:
Definitely nice to see the Euro finally crushing the heat dome next weekend. Probably will see short wave ridging pump it here and there but maybe it will be the end of the consistent beast.
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Euro caving to GFS! Where’s all the Euro huggers/ warministas now!???
 
Will Rossman said:
Nice to see the Euro op run for 12z not only crushing the SE heat ridge but getting ready to pounce in a trough from western Canada at hr 240.
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That incoming trough at D10 would be the real deal as it progressed into the US. Not much support from the eps yet but I like the above normal heights west of Greenland toward the pole

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SD said:
That incoming trough at D10 would be the real deal as it progressed into the US. Not much support from the eps yet but I like the above normal heights west of Greenland toward the pole

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HM says we go from summer to winter. Or something like that. I don't understand most of what he says, but I caught that. I do like what I'm seeing at H5 over the higher latitudes.
 
Yeap sudden changes in seasons seems to be the norm these days.


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Looks like we might have a bit of model chaos coming in the day 7+ period a few things going on in the pacific that could easily change the pattern toward warm/cold with subtle changes

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SD said:
Looks like we might have a bit of model chaos coming in the day 7+ period a few things going on in the pacific that could easily change the pattern toward warm/cold with subtle changes

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Good... model chaos in the extended is often a precursor to pattern change.

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GaWx said:
This is insane, record smashing heat for some being shown for 10/4 by the 12Z Euro. Hopefully it is overdoing it:
View attachment 24149
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Probably going to be another day with a long list of record highs and hottest temps so late in the season. If we get any semblance of a westerly flow ahead of the front some places will top 100 which is ridiculous for October

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SD said:
Probably going to be another day with a long list of record highs and hottest temps so late in the season. If we get any semblance of a westerly flow ahead of the front some places will top 100 which is ridiculous for October

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Yep, with soil moisture at zip, temps will scream up. Thankfully the Euro countinues the end in sight look.
 
Arcc said:
Yep, with soil moisture at zip, temps will scream up. Thankfully the Euro countinues the end in sight look.
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Yeah this should be the end of the absurd stuff at least. Wouldn't rule out some warmish days next week ahead of fronts but no signs of stacked ridging

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Why has this summer been so hot? Not a climate change question. But we started with 100s in May and we are dealing with it into October. I’ve never seen so many 100 degree days in one summer.
 
DustinWx said:
Why has this summer been so hot? Not a climate change question. But we started with 100s in May and we are dealing with it into October. I’ve never seen so many 100 degree days in one summer.
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I’m guessing the SER plays a big role, causes dry hot air to sit over the SE for months. Dry ground allows air to heat up faster. No fronts, no hurricanes... that’s my guess.


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We’re staying at the Pisgah Inn mid October..all’s is I’s know is it better not be in the 80’s up there. Give me my cool down. Please
 
NoSnowATL said:
I’m guessing the SER plays a big role, causes dry hot air to sit over the SE for months. Dry ground allows air to heat up faster. No fronts, no hurricanes... that’s my guess.


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I was wanting some clarity on this too. The southeast ridge is the ridge that sits to our southeast right, the one that pumps humidity and warm air in, also known as the Bermuda high?

The ridge we have dealt with in May and September were more based over Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, is that still considered the SE ridge, which puts us more on the eastern side (dry side)?
 
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