• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Hotober

metwannabe said:
So, for you, this record will have an asterisk beside it, well besides the normal asterisk that records have....
Click to expand...
A momentary 4 degree spike to take out a record definitely gets an asterisk! But I will accept* it.
 
Webberweather53 said:
In this afternoon's case, what I think is happening here is as the mixed layer deepens w/ the heating of the day, drier air is being drawn from aloft towards the surface. This leads to lower dewpoints and some evaporative cooling that cools the surface temperature at least temporarily and enough s.t. it's detected by the sensor.

When you couple the above w/ all of the other aforementioned sources of variability in the temperature plus the inherent error in the measurements actually being collected by the sensor (this temperature sensor usually consists of a platinum resistance thermistor which is itself imperfect and exhibits non-linear variations in conductivity wrt temperature), it's not too surprising to see variations of 2-3F like this.
Click to expand...
I was just about to post this................................................................. *whistling*
 
Brent said:
what a front on the GFS/CMC late next week, there is snow in Kansas!

waiting to see if the Euro shows it
Click to expand...

From one extreme to the other. That pendulum has to swing back hard the other way to average things out.
 
I've observed numerous quick ~3 degree ups and downs on many mostly sunny afternoons on my thermometers in ATL and SAV over the years. I was initially surprised because it seemed counterintuitive to me, but now I know it is normal that even on a sunny day temps don't rise on a smooth slope.

Meanwhile, KATL has already had 8 different 5 minute obs with 97 going back to 1:25 PM including the latest ob, which has clear skies! This 97 is already enough for the highest on record in Oct, breaking yesterday's 96. 98 and perhaps 99 may not be far behind! Very special times for wx weenies! Despite GW, we may not have this opportunity (extreme very late heat in the SE US) again the rest of our lives...so enjoy it!
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah now that's cold. The highs are nice too.
gfs_T2m_seus_46.png

gfs_T2m_seus_45.png
Click to expand...
Add 10-15 degrees to those, and we will see if anything changed since last winter! ☹️
 
SoutheastRidge said:
How do you get 100 with an Early March sun angle ?
Click to expand...

The oceans are near their climatological maximum temps at this time of the year. A south-southwest wind moving over a body of water w/ temps in the mid 80s makes a big difference in early oct vs March when they may be in the 50s or 60s.
 
GaWx said:
I've observed numerous quick ~3 degree ups and downs on many mostly sunny afternoons on my thermometers in ATL and SAV over the years. I was initially surprised because it seemed counterintuitive to me, but now I know it is normal that even on a sunny day temps don't rise on a smooth slope.

Meanwhile, KATL has already had 8 different 5 minute obs with 97 going back to 1:25 PM including the latest ob, which has clear skies! This 97 is already enough for the highest on record in Oct, breaking yesterday's 96. 98 and perhaps 99 may not be far behind! Very special times for wx weenies! Despite GW, we may not have this opportunity (extreme very late heat in the SE US) again the rest of our lives...so enjoy it!
Click to expand...
Lol this is one weather extreme I choose not to enjoy! And we'll see it again. Didn't think I'd see a September like last year, until this year.
 
metwannabe said:
Man what little greenery that was left out there taking a brutal beating today, triple digit heat with humidity dropping into the 25-30% range.... sucking the life out of anything
Click to expand...

The leaves are falling like crazy before they even turn colors.
 
metwannabe said:
Man what little greenery that was left out there taking a brutal beating today, triple digit heat with humidity dropping into the 25-30% range.... sucking the life out of anything
Click to expand...

Yeah i haven’t looked at the SPC but you’d think fire WX could be a issue with
1. Low humidity
2. Some breezes every now and then
3. Lack of soil moisture
4. Ridiculous heat
5. Idiots
 
The 12z ECMWF is very bearish on rain chances with the next front that comes along early next week. Looks like many of us could go without another drop of rain thru mid October. I'm very doubtful that 0.1" will verify in Charlotte.

download (71).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 12z ECMWF is very bearish on rain chances with the next front that comes along early next week. Looks like many of us could go without another drop of rain thru mid October. I'm very doubtful that 0.1" will verify in Charlotte.

View attachment 24241
Click to expand...
Can see the downsloping flow effect on here lol, drought begets drought
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Just seems to be the model error at this range. Several times last year this was the case. GFS likes to take that frontal line and move it vertical. Also it pushes those cold anoms too far south.
Click to expand...

Fair enough but it has zeroed on the upcoming fronts being sluggish and having to depend on a CAD to cool down.

Granted we need more runs but we haven’t see the look of next weekend’s front in a while. Not to mentions the CMC is supporting the idea.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 12z ECMWF is very bearish on rain chances with the next front that comes along early next week. Looks like many of us could go without another drop of rain thru mid October. I'm very doubtful that 0.1" will verify in Charlotte.

View attachment 24241
Click to expand...

Next weekend’s potential front may tap something called gulf moisture. Apparently it’s a thing!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah i haven’t looked at the SPC but you’d think fire WX could be a issue with
1. Low humidity
2. Some breezes every now and then
3. Lack of soil moisture
4. Ridiculous heat
5. Idiots
Click to expand...
Lack of stronger winds mostly, also usually humidity has to drop to around 25%, which obviously it is very close
 
My daughter is supposed to have soccer practice at 5:00 today. It's supposed to still be 96 degrees at 5:00.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That's 3 major models showing a massive cold front. There may be some cold coming quite soon. Would be quite the contrast.
Click to expand...

The very dry soils around here will definitely help us radiatively cool at night, I could certainly see an early frost being observed around here if we manage get a really strong front to swing thru the next few weeks.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top