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Pattern Hotober

Sleet City USA said:
6z GFS holds steady on Saturday CAD
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Yeah it looks good for lower temps in the LR. It looks like it would average out as normal over the LR period, but for this time of year that's beautiful weather. Lack of rain will still be the issue. Looks like some areas in central SC up into central NC could get something but I would say that's suspect at this time.
 
Earlier in this thread someone asked if there was an explanation for why it has been so hot this Sep-Early Oct and last year as well? I am NOT asking about climate change At all. I am asking what weather phenomenon seems to be happening regularly to give the SouthEast US more days over 90 and longer summer weather. More importantly, is it just a passing thing? Or is it really a new normal. In Nashville the average highs should be in the high 70’s now and I assume those numbers were established over the long term. Is this just a blip in the long term, a 10 year cycle, really a new normal? Maybe there is no answer but I and many other are curious to the opinions of the smart folks here.

I’m no asking for a climate change discussion but an explanation outside of that if there is one? Thanks...
 
Falldreams said:
Earlier in this thread someone asked if there was an explanation for why it has been so hot this Sep-Early Oct and last year as well? I am NOT asking about climate change At all. I am asking what weather phenomenon seems to be happening regularly to give the SouthEast US more days over 90 and longer summer weather. More importantly, is it just a passing thing? Or is it really a new normal. In Nashville the average highs should be in the high 70’s now and I assume those numbers were established over the long term. Is this just a blip in the long term, a 10 year cycle, really a new normal? Maybe there is no answer but I and many other are curious to the opinions of the smart folks here.

I’m no asking for a climate change discussion but an explanation outside of that if there is one? Thanks...
Click to expand...
Clear flip of the overall global pattern after the late 90s
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SD said:
Clear flip of the overall global pattern after the late 90s

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

That is a clear flip to warmer globally for sure. If that’s not a decades long natural phenomenon that will shift back I guess I need to pay more attention to the Global Warming messages.
 
CAD is stout this weekend. GFS even cooler latter part of next week. Weather.com, Accuweather, and even FFC not too enthusiastic about the extent of the CAD though all recognize a pattern change.

CMC is grumpy as well.


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If there's anything that worries me at all about the possible CAD next week, its that its mainly such an unreliable model in what was the FV3 that's been completely on board, and even it is backing off some in the southern area that gets it good.

But from the way it sounds, it looks like the Euro has hopped all the way on with goodbye summer after this week, after the CAD time period which is in question of how good it ends up being.

Edit: Just caught myself all the way up on the 12z GFS. For what it shows then, even if you think you need to add in a cold bias, I'll take all that run beyond Friday. Seasonably warm at most.
 
I like how you think Euro
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Looks like most of us get 40s on this run
 
We’ll be up in the mountains on the 13th of October. How’s the foliage looking up towards Pisgah right now?
 
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