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Pattern Hotober

Very good 0z gfs run so far, and I'm not just talking about a cool down but the rain. Starting to see our rains back
 
Boy, isn't is this nice to see
gfs_apcpn_seus_61.png
 
Looking at the 6z GFS, many folks across the SE (especially upper SE) will be able to turn off their ACs, for the season, starting late Friday. Of course, there'll be ups and downs in the temps but if you can stand 80/60 for the warm days, AC time is about over...:)
 
Looking at the 6z GFS, many folks across the SE (especially upper SE) will be able to turn off their ACs, for the season, starting late Friday. Of course, there'll be ups and downs in the temps but if you can stand 80/60 for the warm days, AC time is about over...:)
Meanwhile, let's pull out all the stops to take out the century mark tomorrow. Going to be a shame to only reach 98 or 99.
 
Talking about reaching 100, here's my grid forecast for the next few days. I'm surrounded by the lake and still have 98 listed for Thursday. I think RDU has a real shot.
jjjj.jpg
 
Talking about reaching 100, here's my grid forecast for the next few days. I'm surrounded by the lake and still have 98 listed for Thursday. I think RDU has a real shot.

Record high for PGV in Oct is 96, this is our forecast for tomorrow...seems like the chances of a new record high for Oct is all but a lock....

Thursday
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Heat index values as high as 103. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph.
 
Record high for PGV in Oct is 96, this is our forecast for tomorrow...seems like the chances of a new record high for Oct is all but a lock....

Thursday
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Heat index values as high as 103. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph.
Hey if we're going to suffer might as well be worth while, break some records.
 
Let’s hope (and the way it looks like *Cough* CFS) that’s it’s the big warm up before a very cold winter.


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Really hoping we can get some sort of low riding the front next week. Another weak/dry frontal passage would suck.

14-km EPS Global North America MSLP Anomaly 162.png14-km EPS Global North America 500 hPa Height Anom 162.png
 
12km NAM has some wild high temps for the CAD areas. Does long range NAM have a cold bias?
namconus_T2m_seus_51.png
It's also showing high relative humidity, extensive cloud cover and most likely drizzle/sprinkles. So while I'm not buying it, with those conditions temps would certainly be on the low end

1570029901270.png
 
It's also showing high relative humidity, extensive cloud cover and most likely drizzle/sprinkles. So while I'm not buying it, with those conditions temps would certainly be on the low end

View attachment 24203
Did notice the NWS forecast had good cloud cover, not quite as extensive as this, more concentrated in western carolinas and NE GA
 
I'd lean toward the nam and its heavier depiction of cloud cover /drizzle all day Saturday. Nice little HP sitting in perfect spot to lift air up eastern side of Apps. Nam is always better getting the micro climate details right with Cads than the Global s.
 
Hard to not be excited about a good ice storm this year! Already having a few CAD events late summer and now!
 
Local wunderground station says its 98! Idk about that, most other outlets saying 90-92
EDIT: lol, it just crashed to 92, showing heat index as 110
 
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Yes. Considering it gave me 11 ice storms last year in this range

Although I would argue that the difference between an ice storm and a cold rain can be like threading the needle. So much more than just temperatures a loft.


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Weather underground is always too hot compared to reporting stations for some reason

I've already noted this in other thread, but people don't install their stations properly. Quite honestly, they should never be installed in direct sunlight unless the temperature sensor is extremely protected, at least 5 feet above whatever is below it, and nothing to obstruct the flow of air on either side of it.

This is the graph for today showing the change in temperature, notice how it is a gradual climb, mine is reporting 91F. 30062 at weather.com is reporting 92F

Capture1.PNG

Here is the idiot about two miles away from me, his is reporting 96F.

Capture2.PNG

This station shows the temperature rising and dropping with every passing cloud, not accurate. It means the sensor is grabbing to much heat from a surface that is to close, likely a deck or a roof.
 
"only" 93 here but there's a constant breeze so it definitely helps(or maybe I'm just getting used to it since it's been like this almost daily for months lol)

I am definitely looking forward to the 50s next week however

the heat in the east is incredible though, 92 degrees in NYC in October!
 
RDU up to 96° at 3:51. 2 short of the all-time October record, which could be challenged tomorrow.
 
RDU up to 96° at 3:51. 2 short of the all-time October record, which could be challenged tomorrow.
I say it gets more than challenged tomorrow, I'm going to say tomorrow will be the new all-time October record
 
I say it gets more than challenged tomorrow, I'm going to say tomorrow will be the new all-time October record
We would have to reach at least 99° to break it, which is definitely possible. It would be funny if it reached 100° because it would be the hottest day of the year, in October. That probably has never happened before on record.
 
We would have to reach at least 99° to break it, which is definitely possible. It would be funny if it reached 100° because it would be the hottest day of the year, in October. That probably has never happened before on record.
All the more reason to go for broke, shoot for 100.... going to get that close might as well be one of those things you will forever be able to tell your children about.
 
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